Ottawa Senators

(top) Six in the City

Does Ottawa have their secondary scoring resolved? More specifically, is secondary scoring really an issue on Ottawa, considering they were the highest scoring team in the NHL?
It is my view that Ottawa’s second line will resemble the top line of the Detroit Red Wings, albeit not nearly as offensively gifted. Like the Wings top line, the Sens second line will provide shut down calibre defensive play, while providing sufficient offensive prowess to keep the opposition honest, if not scared. This worked well for the Wings in the Cup final where Datsyuk and Zetts significantly reduced their production vs PIT, but also shut down their opponents top lines. The offensive slack was picked up by the second unit, where-as on Ottawa, this job will fall into the capable hands of the Pizza line. Let’s be clear, goal-scoring is not an issue for Ottawa, but goal prevention is, and last season, the top line was all too often victims of their lack of sound defensive play against top line opposition.
Here are the two second line options I predict for 2008-09;
Option #1
Kelly - Vermette - Fisher

Kelly - There is no doubt that Kelly is no sniper. But he does bring a synergistic mix of skills that have proven to improve the play of those around him. Kelly is a beast on the fore check, and despite his average size, throws his body around effectively, and often. He is tenacious along the boards, and often digs out the puck and gets it back into play in the offensive zone. He can finish a play, but this is not his calling. Defensively, he can remain on the ice no matter what line goes over the boards, which makes him a great player to send out first when playing on the road.

Vermette - Due for a break-out year (again…), but for once will probably get top six minutes by default, and not be shifted out as soon as things don’t go great, as was the norm in the past. He will garner the pivot role as both he and Kelly are LH shots, and Vermy represents the better set up man of the two. Vermette has superior defensive abilities, and an above average set of hands, that many believe have lacked the opportunity to prove their worth.

Fisher - He has yet to legitimize his top 6 offensive cred, but he is not a liability either. After struggling enormously with groin issues all last season, the hope is Fisher can finally put it all together and emerge as the premier physical 2 way forward he is expected to be. I forecast him moving to the right wing as he and Alfredsson are the only RH shots among the top six forwards, but there is no lack of depth at centre.
Option #2 (My personal favourite)
Kelly - Vermette - Alfredsson

This line up is a distinct possibility. If Fisher and Alfredsson were to switch places, the effect could be dramatic, in that it spreads the offense, and brings a renewed physical dimention to the top line that is unfair to continue to ask of Alfredsson at 36.

Between Spezza and Heatley, the top line remains highly offensively capable, and Fisher can focus on bringing the physical presence and defensive conscience that best suits his game. In fact, Heatley’s play at the World Cup showed the impact a hard fore checking forward can have in freeing up Heatley’s one timer. Fisher can also play the Holmstrom role in front of the net, a role that the top line is currently missing. On the second line, Alfredsson brings his tremendous work ethic, physical play, and offensive ability, all while providing exceptional defensive acumen. This will also allow Alfie to reduce his ES ice time and maintain his #1 role on the PP. The days of +23 min. games should be in Alfies past if the club expects him performing at his best through out a long and arduous season. This same mix (with Stillman in Alfies spot) was highly productive last season (until Kelly went down to injury), and was the unofficial second line. Alfredsson represents a huge upgrade to Stillman, in all aspects, and could make this line a very dynamic performer at both ends of the ice.
How do you see the top six setting up? Your thoughts are always welcome.

Auld man….in or out?

Oh the agony of the off-season. While the hockey writers throw out the odd report on the big 2, the rest of us have to just sit back and wait for the season to near before having any attention (fabricated or not) paid to our teams. So, I’ll do my best to fill the void with another look at a new roster addition, Alex Auld.

In the view of many hockey pundits, Alex represented one of the best goaltenders available this off season. Now, although that may sound promising, and it is, let’s just be clear, it was a particularly weak class. Apart from Theodore, and Huet there was little else of note truly available. Neither Theodore nor Huet have yet to prove to be worth the attention they garnered, let alone the salaries they commanded, leaving Auld as the most coveted backstop for right minded teams to consider, albeit in a back-up scenario. To be clear, as the above statement is ripe for criticism, I’m not comparing Auld and Theodore and Huet directly, merely in terms of value for the money.

Who exactly is this Alex Auld we have replaced the Jeckyl and Hyde formerly known as “Razor” Ray Emery with? Well, he’s no Ray Emery, and that’s both good, and bad. But, there are some similarities, both in style of play, and career challenges. They are both very large framed goaltenders, that cover a great deal of the net, and posess above average athleticism, that has led both into trouble zones when they over play a shot. Also like Ray, Auld was not drafted with a great deal of fanfare, but at a respectable (especially for a goalie) 40th over-all, but was drafted by none other then Bryan Murray.

When Murray drafted Auld in FLA, it was in hopes of him becoming a #1 starter, and some believe this hope remains, with the impending UFA status of Gerber in 2009.Is this reasonably possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. Unfortunately, his earning number one status in the past has been faced with some serious difficulties, both as a result of his play, and the play of those around him. In Florida, his drafting team, he was too young to earn a role, and was moved out to VAN for picks in 2001 when it was believed he was not the goaltender of the future. In Vancouver Auld began his professional career, playing for Manitoba of the AHL, where, to be fair, he struggled. But he did get his first start in the NHL. The next two seasons saw Aulds play continue to progress in the AHL, along with a few more starts in the NHL, until in 2005 he cracked the VAN line-up, and earned a starter role, where he played 67 games, posting a .902 sv%. He was traded back to Florida the following off season in the infamous Luongo deal, and languished while playing on poor teams like Florida and Pheonix.

His career saw a resurgence after being traded to BOS in 2007, where he picked up 23 starts while sharing duties with Tim Thomas. Although he lagged behind Thomas, when his individual performance is assessed, it becomes obvious that his winning % is more a factor of his teams lack of offense then his poor play in net. In one particularly dismal streak of 4 straight losses (ending his role on BOS), he allowed only a maximum of 3 goals once, and had a GAA of 1.49. Simply put, he gave his team a chance to win, and that’s all that can be asked of any goaltender. In fact Tim Thomas has received a fair bit of accolades (deservedly) for his stellar play in 2007, but Auld was given the horns. However, when comparing full games played, Auld was the better tender, having not once allowed more then 3 goals in 18 opportunities, with a combined 1.88 AGPG. Contrast this to Thomas, who in 52 full games allowed 4 or more goals 9 times and had a AGPG of 2.19. To say the least BOS was a challenging team for a goaltender to look good on, and Thomas may have been the recipient of playing on those nights the team in front of him scored. Not to mention the fact that Thomas could make stopping a beach ball look acrobatic. Say what you will about him, he is fun to watch!

Where does this leave Auld on Ottawa? Honestly battling for a chance to earn a number one role come next season. At only 27, Auld is far from washed up, and in many peoples eyes, he’s one fair opportunity away from earning a starting job, with the right team in front of him. If Ottawa plays as lousy defensively as they did last season, Auld may just have found himself in another no win situation, but if Ottawa returns to form, and Auld steals the number one job, or at least competes for starts, Auld may hit the jackpot of finally getting a chance to accept his share of the blame, and success, in a team game.

Who should stay and who should go now?

With a glut of bottom six forwards carrying one way contracts, Canada’s Team has to soon sort out who is going to likely stick on the big club, and who is up for a trade. The top six ranks, unfortunately, are still thin by one, but I surmise (at this point, and based on nothing but gut feel) Kelly will compete for that remaining spot. So, this leaves 6 openings, for Bass, Donnovan, Foligno, Ruutu, MacAmmond, Winchester, and Neil. This assuming Vermette, Kelly, and Fisher on on the second line, if even one of those 3 stay in the bottom six, the issue becomes even more acute.

So, what are the variables going through Murrays mind as we speak, when it comes to defining the bottom six. Well, obviously, how would I know for sure? But I can certainly examine what should be going through his head. Lets take each player at a time, and look at what they bring, how easily they can be moved within the organization, how marketable they may be from a trade perspective, and their cost.

I’ll start with the most unknown commodity,

Jesse Winchester. - Jesse is a capable hockey player, that due to development timing was never picked up through the draft. This certanly doesn’t bode well, as there are far fewer examples of undrafted players making an impact in the NHL then drafted players, but it is not entirely un-explored territory, case in point, another Murray find from the academic ranks, Dustin Penner. In fact, the similarities are remarkable. Neither player was ever a stand-out in their respective careers, but both possesed a nice package of size, grit, and offensive ability. Where Winchester is lacking in size compared to Penner (and who isn’t?), he makes up for in leadership and work ethic. Simply put, Winchester is a gamer, who never quits, and lives and dies by the team game. Exactly what Murray was looking for. It is expected that Winchesters role will be very similar to that of Chris Kelly past role on the third line, and some believe he was brought in as a potential stop gap should Kelly have moved on to another team this off season, as he was not post season eligible. With Kelly re-signed, where does Winchester fit in to the plans? Murray knows far more then I do, as my exposure to Winchester has been limited to stat reading, minor media examination, and what he displayed at the recent DC. At the end of the day, Penner is not the target comparison, but Kelly is, and no team can have too many Kelly’s in the bottom 6. In terms of movement, because he just signed his first rookie contract, he is not subject to waivers until he has played another 59 NHL games, or 2 years, which-ever comes first. But, with a $500K one way deal, it would take some ’splainin to the other prospects why Winchester is worth 5x their value in the AHL, not to mention to the accountants cutting him his cheques. His value on the trade market is probably lower then his worth as a prospect, at this point, so he is unlikely to be either sought out, or marketed aggressively. Prediction, either makes the team in Oct, or is a quick injury call up from the AHL.

Cody Bass - Cody is another Chris Kelly type player (Do you think the team likes Chris Kelly?). He battles hard every shift, plays a very sound back-checking game, and is a decent face-off performer. Offensively, he is no more gifted then Kelly, and that’s not saying much, but he does bring a more gritty edge to his game, and will soon become a fan favourite with his edgy style of play, and eagerness to back it up. Bass is not waiver eligible, so can be sent down without fears of losing him to another club, and is currently on a two way contract. His NHL salary is $514K. Prediction - He’s a keeper, as the combination of his age, salary, and role playing ability is what makes the top end salaries work, while still icing a complete team.

Nick Foligno - Nick is more into the Mike Fisher mold. A gritty player with a tonne of tenacity, speed, and a projectable frame. Unlike Winchester, and Bass, Foligno possesses more offensive upside, albeit not 1st line status, but he could develop into a respectable #6 forward in time. He has played some top six minutes already, and along with Bass was a stand-out on an otherwise lackluster squad in the post season. Foligno is not waiver eligible, and will not be for another 35 games. His NHL salary is $850K. Prediction - Foligno will battle Zubov for a role on this club this coming training camp. If Zubov impresses, and earns a top 6 role, Foligno is the likely odd man out due to his not having to clear waivers, and 2 way contract. If he is dropped to the AHL, he will be the #1 injury reserve, and might even stick as the 23rd man, if the cap allows for it and the team believes it will not hamper his development.

Shean Donnovan - His package of speed, size, tenacity and grit make him the ideal 4th liner. He can easily move into a regular shift on the third line, can fill in on the PK, and, in a pinch, play top six minutes for a game or two. His only knock has been his tendency to lose focus in the regular season, and not bring his A game every night. He is rarely a floater, but when you know what he can bring in terms of intensity, the gap is sometimes unacceptable. He will never develop into an offensive player. Prediction - With a one way salary of $600k, and no waiver exemption, he is a lock for this squad come the start of the season.

Jarkko Ruutu - This guy is the modern day version of Essa Tikkanen. Hell drive you mad with his mouth, cheap shot you from behind, dive like a fat kid on a smarty, and worse of all, tune you in if you corner him into dropping the gloves. The epitome of the guy you hate to love on your own team, and love to hate on any other. Prediction - With a one way deal of $1.3M, and no waiver exemption, he’s a lock on the Sens 3rd or 4th line.

Chris Neil - Now is when it gets interesting. Between Donnovan, Bass, Ruutu, and Fisher this team has players who can adequately defend themselves, and in a pinch, their line mates. Neil is not a gifted offensive player, nor defensive, and as an agitator, is out classed by Ruutu. From a pugilist point of view, Bass is near to if not equal to Neil. So, with his skill set already being covered off, does he still have a role on this team? The short answer is, only if nothing better comes along via trade offers. It has been widely reported that he is being actively shopped by Murray, and some have made strong ties to his name and a trade for Cam Barker of the Chicago Blackhawks. I have little doubt Murray would make this trade if it were available.  Prediction - With a one way salary of $1.1M, impending UFA status, and no waiver exemption, barring injury, Chris will not be on this team after the trade deadline, and could be out even sooner if the right deal comes along.

Dean MacAmmond - Dean is an easy player to admire and respect, but also an easy player to replace. He has never found a permanent home in the NHL, and his odds of doing so seem to be reducng on a daily basis as his role is now reserved for younger prospects with more flexible contracts. Dean has the abilty to play anywhere on the ice in the forward position, from the top line in a pinch, to the 4th line. He is a great team guy, the epitome of a character guy off the ice, and brings it every night. The only problem is that apart from his skating ability, he doesn’t excel in any one area. He’s not overly big. He’s not overly physical. He’s not overly offensively gifted. He’s not a tremendous penalty killer, or 2 way forward. Prediction - With a one way salary of $875K, impending UFA status, and no waiver exemption, Dean is likely to be moved as a part of a trade package, or for a draft pick before the season opener. He will be missed.

Thoughts?

You know it’s a slow period when…

I’m talking Bryan McCabe.

For the Ottawa Senators, the only strategic move left unfulfilled is the need to replace Redden’s top 2 minutes, and offensive prowess, as meek as it has been lo these past two seasons. As offensive Dman after offensive Dman signs, or is traded, the pool of talent becomes shallower, and shallower. To be fair, Murray is probably now just as worried about getting caught in the vortex of the rapidly draining pool as he is about not filling this role. Now is the time a GM makes a bold move, or let’s it go. Is now the time to trade for the player (formerly) known as McClutz?

With new rumblings about McCabe voluntarily leaving the “Blue Basket Case”, where do people think he’ll end up?
1. Popular opinion has centered around Long Island, but with the recent signing of Streit, at 4.1M/yr, 5 yrs, is it really likely they’ll take on another big defensive contract for a carbon copy player? It becomes all the more unlikely when you consider their lack of offensive talent in the forward ranks. It would seem the 4.150M would be better spent on a top six forward.
2. What about Florida? The sunshine state has been rumoured to be a possible landing place. But with a mere 6M left in cap space, will the anemic Panthers spend to the cap on another offensive Dman? Is a Bouwmeester for McCabe + trade in the works? Certainly a possibility, but from FLA’s point of view, I’m sure JBo could command much better then an aging one dimensional player with an NMC and a big contract.
3. If the sunshine state is the destination, and it’s not Smilin’ Jack who takes him, this leaves TBL. At present they haven’t the cap space, but they do have a glut of forwards to contend with before the season begins. In order to accommodate McCabe, TBL would have to shed around 4M, to leave some wiggle room under the cap. Do they intend to go to the cap? That would be a change from the past, new ownership not withstanding. A possible move would be Minnie Vinnie for McCabe and a 1st. Not sure that fits for either team.
What about BUF? The team needs to replace the offensive hole vacated by Campbells departure. They have the cap space, but have never been a team to spend to the cap in the past, and going to @56M now would make letting Campbell go in favour of McCabe look incompetent. But, if they swapped one anchor contract for another, then it’s possible. McCabe for Afinogenov? Maybe, but this leaves BUF light up front. McCabe would like the proximity for sure, as it would mean his family could stay put in Toronto.
NYR? It is “back home” for the family?   After having signed both Redden and Roszival, would they force shuffle their deck to accommodate McCabe. Very unlikely.
NJD? Again, close to home, but NJD hasn’t the space under the cap without moving a big salary. Gionta is rumoured to be available, and he would fit nicely on the Basket Cases top line…but why would NJD solve Toronto’s problem by giving them a high calibre player? Besides, McCabe is not exactly a “Devil” type of player. Unlikely.
LAK? Now, that’s an interesting possibility. With only 4D men signed, and no legit NHL ready prospect in the wings, they are certainly in need of some bodies on defense. McCabe would do well in replacing Blakes offensive game, and be capable of contributing the ice time lost with his departure. As well, the Kings would benefit from the more then 1.6M in fake cap room gained from McCabes front loaded contract. As a team that will struggle to reach the floor as is, this is a nice bonus. So what would go back to TO? Not much, as the Kings need all the salary they can get. A 3rd rounder? Quite possibly. But, would McCabe go all the way to LaLa Land, and consume the rigorously travel of the Western Conference, just to play on another non contender? I wouldn’t.
OTT? Dare I say it? McCabe playing on Canada’s Team? Could the humble Senators fans withstand the shear mass of a player from the centre of the universe? At first the thought is….HELLS NO! To think, no more laughing at the “Rag Doll” clip. No more laughing at the McClutz jokes. Oh, imagine the hand wringing. Imagine the looks of disbelief. What’s next? Joe Bowen replacing Dean Brown? The blasphemy!
But, once the shock wore off (in a month or two), maybe the fans could see the benefits for Canada’s Team. McCabe is a lousy #1 Dman, but as a PP specialist, he is certainly very competent. He can also log big minutes. He can also take, and give a hit, and play a physical game. He could also bring a desire for redemption that would help re-ignite the passion in a locker room accused of having lost their focus and fire. He would certainty signal a change, a true departure from the past, and a new foot forward. The biggest issue would be his cap hit. Absorbing his 5.75M would require some moves off of the roster, which is no big deal, except the moves go to a division rival, and that changes everything. The 3 names most likely to move are Neil, MacAmmond and Nycholat. I can’t imagine Neil being moved to Toronto, full stop. This leaves Nycholat and Mac. Nycholat could be a good stop gap until Shenn comes on board, and Mac would bring a good all around game, and some veteran leadership to a squad in desperate need of such. And, at 1hr, the flight to Toronto makes getting home a fairly easy prospect for Bryan, not to mention the 12 games in and around the GTA through-out the season.
But, as it stands, the cap room is not there, so long as Mesz remains part of the plan. Would Murray move Mesz, Nycholat & Mac for McCabe, Earl and a 2nd? Probably.  Now that would be bold.

Comments always welcome.

Norton Analysis.

After years working as a process control statistician, I’ve learned that opportunity is the greatest predictor of an event. If it is impossible for an event to occur, it will not occur, and therefore not be recorded. If it is highly likely for an event to occur, it will occur, and be frequently recorded. This may seem absolutely obvious, but it is all but completely over-looked when analyzing NHL player performance. How so? Ice time. Not all ice time is created equally. Not in terms of effort required, offensive opportunity, or defensive opportunity. This is why some players graduate from “specialists” to “core” players, but then fail to earn their salaries. Consider it the Peter Principal on ice. Let’s use Andrei Meszaros as an example. In his rookie season, which was widely heralded as proof positive of his impending elite status, he played a whopping 15% of his total ice time on the PP, and generated 24 of his impressive 39 rookie season points while on the PP. 14 of the remaining 15 pts came while playing ES, but 50% of those came immediately after the end of the PP time, effectively making them PP points. This means he produced almost 80% of his points, all within a period representing less then 17% of his total ice time. Does this really make him an elite defenseman? Or a specialist? Because honestly, while playing a 3rd pairing role ES, he was hardly facing the highest calibre offensive talent. But, he did play a great deal of second unit PK time, and in that role, he was competent. So in the following season, with the loss of Chara, he was promoted to the second pairing. How did he fair? He continued to produce points, but his defensive game was exposed by the higher calibre opponents he faced. Over-all, in that role, he was far from elite. But, in that same year emerged Volchenkov as a durable, physical, shot blocking defensive beast. Start the elite defenseman chatter right? Wrong. Why not? Simply, because the NHL, the media, and it’s fans, are points driven. Mesz scored a lot of points while playing a lot of premium scoring time (PP), and was given a lot of attention. Volchenkov played an amazing defensive game, while playing difficult defensive time (PK), but was basically given a pat on the back, but little else. In this same year, although Volchy was outstanding defensively, he was basically non productive offensively, and had little or no offensive opportunities, as they went to Mesz. Mesz was criticized for his defensive play, but still heralded for his offensive play. Volchy signed a new contract worth 2.5M. After another season struggling defensively, Mesz is setting up to sign a contract of over 3M, and could likely land over 5M if he were a UFA. Sound reasonable to you? It’s not. Especially when you consider Volchy was never given a chance to produce on the PP, and Mesz was never asked to assume a shut down role on the first unit PK. Opportunity is simply not taken into consideration when evaluating players. Without opportunity, there can be no event. This same challenge is often faced by those of us who enjoy reading statistical analysis by other fans of the game. All too often the conclusions are based on non opportunity adjusted data, and this often leads to skewed results, which enhance the offensive capabilities of a player, while masking the defensive capabilities of this same player. Simply put, a truly elite defenseman plays above average in all situations, PP, PK, and ES. All other similar ice time players are specialists, if they excel in any one area, or just plain above average, if they don’t. That brings me to another point, total average time on ice (TATOI). This is another great data set that must be used when comparing players. It is simply unforgivable, from an integrity of conclusions view, to compare players of wildly differing ice times. This is not just a matter of opportunity adjustment, but situational adjustment. Low ice time players face lower calibre opponents. To compare their results to those of a player facing higher calibre opponents is irrational, no matter the mix of that ice time. The only time this can be done is if the two players TATOI is different, but one or two of their sub indexes are similar, i.e., similar PPATOI times can be compared, even if their TATOI is different. Taking another look at Volchy versus Mesz. The problem that quickly arises os the one of the chicken or the egg. Is Mesz more productive because of his ice time on the PP, or does he get more ice time on the PP because he is productive? I do not claim to know this, and anybody outside of the coach, isn’t either. But I can say this. If I am a coach, and one player is great defensively (a much harder skill to acquire I might add), and another is bad defensively, the better one get’s the PK ice time, and shut down role. Knowing that this ice time is particularly difficult, I am probably not going to ask this same player to play on the PP as well. This time then goes to the player with lesser defensive skill. Resulting in that player actually be “rewarded” for their defensive deficits. Strange indeed! How to then compare players? Well basically its a series of data points being rationally categorized. First is League, then season, then comes conference, position, ice time, lastly, sub sets of ice time. Using these date sets, I can then produce two key matrices, PRODuction, as a ratio of specific points over specific ice time and PREVention, as a ratio of specific goals against over specific ice time. My data will be able to highlight each players ability to produce points, and prevents points, on an even playing field. There are a number of key factors I will not include in the data, which I will leave to individuals to rationalize for. This is because there is no acceptable way to account for them, without inferring undue bias, on my part. Frankly, I have no means of developing a defend able data set to account for the impact of these variables, so I won’t. These include; 1. Goaltending - So many factors are involved in the scoring of a goal, that I have a hard time attributing goaltending as a factor. Some do, namely Alan Ryder, but I have issues with his rational (I’m not saying he’s wrong, just that his means are not robust enough, IMO, to say he’s right). 2. Shot quality -So many factors are involved in the taking of a shot, that I have a hard time attributing individual shot analysis as a factor. Some do, namely Alan Ryder, but I have issues with his rational (I’m not saying he’s wrong, just that his means are not robust enough, IMO, to say he’s right). 3. Team style of play - So incredibly subjected, especially when it goes from intended style of play, to actual style of play. 4. Teammate effect. - Again, this is the classic who was better, Hull or Oates, Gretzky or Kurry, Brodeur or Stevens etc. I’ll leave that up to the readers to debate. I will begin this analysis at the beginning of the 2008/09 season, for select players (high ice time) through-out the league (all Senators) and post 20 game updates, ideally showing trends, interim leaders, and over-all team attributes. I have taken some time to develop the rationales, and in testing them have developed some data from last season. I will post it here to allow the readers to gain some familiarity with the data, to answer any questions, and more importantly, allow the methodology, and conclusions to be challenged, thus allowing for adjustments I missed. There will be some further adjstments, especially around the calculation for OATPREV, which on this chart is far too simplistic, and not at all rational. I will produce an OATPREV similar to that of the OATPROD. As you’ll see below, I’m having some issues inserting a table, sorry about the mess. As soon as this is worked out I’ll try to work it out by the start of posting the 2008/09 season.

For the Prod numbers, the lower the number (time) the better, as this represents how many minutes the player plays before recording a point.

For the Prev numbers, the higher the number (time) the better, as this represents how many minutes the player can play before having a point recorded against him

Episode 6 - E I E I O (Oh?)…

If this were the classic children’s song, and ol’ MacDonald had a (Senators prospect) farm, you had better hope it was a short car ride, because frankly, ol’ MacDonald aint got a lot to sing about down on his farm.

If you were to restrict your analysis to the oft quoted, but even more dubious opinions of a certain hockey prospects website, Ottawa is deep in the bottom third of the league in prospect depth. This can be attributed in large part to 2 key factors, poor draft positioning after years of solid performance by the big club, and some unfortunate choices by the men in charge (rhymes with tuckler, but starts with an M…). But, to be fair, the draft position is far and away the biggest culprit in the Senators current lacking in prospect depth. Over the last few years Ottawa has attempted to compensate for their lack of high picks by drafting younger, less developed players, with high skill, instead of more proven players, with less skill, and secondly, to focus on much the same from Europe. The strategy was, and until this seasons 1st over-all pick, is to try to find those diamonds in the rough that other teams will pass over because they already took a decent prospect higher up, and will now focus on “depth” players with a more proven pedigree lower in the draft. This has resulted in picks such as Ben Blood, Brian Lee, Jim O’brien, Kaspars Daugevins, Peter Regin, none of whom having had experience in the N.A. Junior ranks.

But alas, all is not lost, and to be honest, all is not even particularly worrisome. Because although ol’ MacDonald may not have a lot to sing about, he does have a fair bit to crow about, and when it comes to depth, quality is more important then quantity. Fortunately for the Sens, the “New” NHL has been kind to their draft record. Prior to the lock-out, big, and mean out matched average and skilled. This left the Sens with the opportunity to pick up some average sized, but higher skilled players late in the draft, who are now bearing fruit, while other teams were blowing their high picks on size over skill.

The question now, when looking at prospects, is what are they, and how does that mesh with the Senators needs. Again, fortunately, with a number of these diamonds in the rough beginning to sparkle, the Sens have artfully designed their long term signings around what is on the tractor from the farm. It is more then fair to say that top end offensive talent is not represented in the Sens prospects. This isn’t to say they’re all luggers, but there isn’t likely a Toews in the bunch. To plan around this reality, Murray has locked up a young and talented offensive core in Spezza and Heatley. Assuming Alfie continues to play at a high level for a couple more seasons, and Fisher proves to have an average or better offensive game, this leaves only the need for second line offensive talent, so without further adieu, here they are;

Second Line Forwards

Ilya Zubov - This young Russian likely represents the pick of the litter from the ‘87 Russian class. Ilya developed his early game in the Traktor hockey school, and began his professional career in the RHL, where he quickly grew into a steady contributor. He is also a product of the Team Russia development program, and after some solid play in several international tournaments, made the jump to the REL, where he moved around considerably, and continued to impress as a clutch performer in the post season.

In 2007/08 Ilya chose to come to NA, and risk accepting a role on the AHL Bingo Senators. He hoped to land a role in the NHL, but, after being one of the final cuts at training camp, energetically accepted the opportunity to improve his physical game, and earn much needed experience in the NA style of play and arena. He is recognized as being a very mature person, and in being very coach able. He worked tirelessly as a third and second line centre, and was rewarded with an injury call up to the NHL.

Ilya made his second appearance at the Sens development camp earlier this summer, and unfortunately appeared to be somewhat out of condition. His over-all talent with the puck, as a passer, handler and shooter, continued to impress the coaches, as did his developing willingness to engage in physical play, both from the offensive and defensive side of the puck.

It was clearly communicated to Ilya that the coaches had 3 key areas that he had to work on if he wanted a real chance to make the big club this season;

1. Over handling the puck in the offensive zone. Ilya is highly talented in this regard, but he will be taken advantage of by faster, and more highly skilled NHL defenders if he carries on with this same propensity in the NHL. Ilya has both a great shot, and excellent play making skills, and it will be stressed that he will have to rely more heavily on this aspect of his game if he wishes to earn the coaches trust and play a regular shift in the NHL.

2. Two way commitment. Ilya has good natural instincts in this regard, but has a propensity to allow too much separation between him and his check, in an effort to realize an offensive opportunity. This has plagued his game through-out his development, and has frustrated many of his coaches, as he is often only just slightly out of position, which shows it is a choice, not a lack of skill or laziness. This is a common criticism of young players who have gained success through their offensive skills, and in many ways Ilya represents a player with a better then average defensive ability. Now it is a matter of his coaches making him realize this isn’t the RHL anymore, and his offensive talents are no longer considerably above average, making his defensive errors all the more glaring and unacceptable.

3. Conditioning. The issue at the recent DC was a matter of aerobic fitness, not weight. He has added a considerable amount of muscle to his previously lanky 6-1 frame, but he did let himself go from a cardio standpoint in the brief off season, and it showed. Ilya was shown up considerably in this regard by the two players he is most having to supersede if he wishes to crack the Senators line-up this fall, namely Nick Foligno, and Jesse Winchester, who both looked like cardio machines at the DC. In a refreshing commitment to his development, Ilya has chosen to remain in Ottawa for the rest of this off season, and will join fellow prospects Bass, Foligno and Winchester in working with R. Lee on their physical preparedness for this seasons up coming training camp. This has not gone unnoticed by either Sens management or coaching staff.

Likely potential - Ilya certainly has the skill, and drive to make a career out of playing in the NHL, but at 21, he’s not yet a lock in this regard, and would definitely benefit from another year playing in the AHL, and assuming a bigger role on the team. His willingness to commit to his development in this regard has, up until now, been enchanting to the Senators, who, like many other NHL clubs, have been burned by young Russian prospects unwilling to earn their stripes in the minors. Will this continue if he fails to make the club this fall? Only time will tell, but there’s no doubt that the Senators will impress upon Ilya that he is definitely in their future plans, and they highly value his remaining on course in his development as an NHL’er. From a strategic perspective Ilya represents Ottawa’s best short term offensive prospect, and will likely only make the NHL on the strength of this aspect of his game. Luckily, as of right now, the Senators are bereft of second line talent, and this may very well play right into Ilya’s skill set if he can impress the coaches with his offensive game at the upcoming training camp. At this point, and assuming no changes in the Senators forward roster, Ilya stands a 50-60% chance of cracking the line-up this fall, and a 80% chance a being considered the first call-up in the depth chart.

Alexander Nikulin - Alexander is another terrific prospect, and was regarded as being as high as the 5th best Russian of his draft group, a heady ranking considering it included the likes of O.V. and Malkin. To be fair, nobody is attempting to make comparisons with these generational talents (and in O.V.’s case, maybe the talent of the 21 st century) but it is a good indicator as to his potential as an NHL player. Nikulin developed his skill as a member of the CSKA school, eventually making it from the 2 junior club in 2003/04 to continues showings in the Elite league for 52 games in 05/06, and again in 06/07. He is also a product of the Team Russia development program, having played in a number of international tournaments.

At 22 Nikulin decided to take his shot at the NHL, figuring that it was now or never, and was willing to bide his time in the minors to get there. But he did leave his REL team believing he would either make the Sens straight out of training camp, or be restricted to playing only a short stint before being called up permanently. Unfortunately for Alexander, Nick Foligno caught the eye of the club, straight out of junior, and shot past Nikulin on the Senators depth chart. Where Nikulin had only 2 starts in the NHL in 07/08, Foligno had 45, including another 4 in the post season.

Coming out of training camp, Nikulin made it to the final cut, and was tasked with acclimating himself to the NA game, and culture in Bingo of the AHL. Nikulin did play well in the NHL, and in 71 games amassed 50 pts., not a bad showing for his first exposure to professional hockey in North America. Nikulin is known mostly for his play-making ability, and puck posession game. He does posess a better then average wrist shot, but is the sort of player who makes those around him better, not the otherway around. He is a reasonably physical player, and does not shy away from contact, or one on one battles for the puck. He is not however a particularly agressive checker, but is not shy either. Although 22 at the time, last years training camp was Nikulins first time playing for the Senators, and he spent the summer training with his Russian club before coming over in late August. Nikulin remains under contract with CKSA, and would be eligeable to return should he choose to do so in an agreement reached between the Senators and CKSA. Nikulin did attend this summers DC, and like his Russian teammate Zubov, showed up out of condition. At the DC he did not show much improvement in his game over that of the previous years training camp, despite his time in the AHL, and barring a great showing at this falls training camp is unlikely to usurp Zubov as the Senators top second line offensive prospect. The big question is whether or not Nikulin would return to the AHL or CKSA, should he not make the Senators.

Likely Potential - Nikulin is an NHL calibre player, but at this point he likely does not possess the offensive talent required of the Sens in a second line forward role. Nikulin does possess the speed, skill and physical willingness to effectively play a third line centre role, but unfortunately for him, this is a role represented by a number of players already on the Senators roster. He will most likely be offered an invitation to further refine his skills in Bingo for the 08/09 season, with further opportunity for injury call-ups. If the Senators feel he is unlikely to accept this arrangement, expect to see him traded before the start of the regular season. Nikulin has a 30-40% chance of cracking the Sens line up, but in order to do so will have to knock Foligno out of his reigning #1 prospect status by showing determined physical play, a strong work ethic, and some intriguing offensive potential.

Kaspars Daugavins - Kaspars is a product of the Latvian National development program, he evenplayed in the WC at the age of only 17, and notched an impressive 6 pts. in 6 games vs men. He later played his first professional hockey in the Belarusion Extraliga with HK Riga 2000. After that one year in the BHL, Kaspars was selected 3rd over-all by Melnyk’s own St. Mikes Majors of the CHL in the 2006/07 import draft. In his rookie season, Daugavins turned some heads by producing 60 pts and finishing 6th in scoring among rookies, a crop which included such names as Kane, Gagner, and a young phenom, Stamkos.  Daugavins followed up this impressive performance by further increasing his points total to 74, including 40 goals, tying the same goal scoring output as the highly touted Tavares.  His superior performance earned him a role on the OHL all-star team.  All this while playing on a very weak club.

Kaspars is a players player. He battles hard down low, shows a dedicated work ethic, and provides great leadership both on the ice and in the dressing room. In hockey vernacular, he’s a character guy. At 20 he has shown tremendous development in all aspects of his game, and has filled out his projectable frame to an impressive 213 lbs. Although not a hitter in the strict sense of the word, he is not shy about physical contact, and is agressive in driving to and battling in front of the oppositions net. Daugavins possesses a tremendous skating ability, and superior play-making abilities. He has played 13 games in the AHL, and is a lock to play in Bingo this up coming season.

Potential - As a winger, Daugavins represents a dark horse for cracking the Senators line-up. His size, international experience, North American experience, and hockey skills just might fit nicely alongside Fisher on the second line. Hartsburg no doubt is well aware of Daugavins, and this could possibly play into his favour, as could his affiliation with Melnyk’s St. Mikes Majors. There is no doubt that Daugavins is a player drawing a lot of attention from the Senators brass, and like Foligno last season, his work ethic, and character just might land him a spot on the Senators this fall. Kaspars has a 40-50% chance of making the Sens this fall, if he can build on his good showing at the DC earlier this summer. If not, he will suit up for the baby Sens, and be a key call up in case of injury to non offensive minded players.
Feel free to leave a comment, and let me know what you think about these posts, the Sens in general, and ideas for further blogs.

Freedom is not worth having if it does not connote freedom to err.

I bet most of you didn’t know Ghandi was a big hockey fan now did you? I think what he might have been trying to say in this quote, is that, although free to do as they choose, RFA’s are still faced with the intrinsic risk of making the wrong choice, in the exercising of their new found contractual freedoms. This is certainly the case in Ottawa, for both sides.

Much has been written about Ottawa’s two leading RFA’s, namely Andrej Meszaros, and Antoine Vermette. Before taking a look at these players, I’d first like to say that I believe many NHL GM’s have done a huge disservice to the NHL, and even the players. One of the great mistakes in life (I think) is the belief that money is the root to happiness. Player agents, although a necessity in the complex world of professional sports, are often driven exclusively by the players salary, as this in effect determines their salary. The agent is not the one who risks the burden of being compared to too high a salary. The agent doesn’t suffer the unhappiness of playing in a undesirable location or locker room. The player does. But far too often, I believe, the player is guided towards the money, and only the money. This leads to some young players signing for deals they cannot reasonably play up to, and to sign into situations that do not suit their own development, or compliment their personal quality of life, beyond a big pay check. I also believe it forces both players and GM’s into making decisions about a players potential far too soon in the players development. This can create strife in a locker room where young players, from their agents mouth to their egos, believe they are not just rookie or sophomore players, but full fledged NHL core guys. At one time, the big RFA contract was reserved for bona fide star’s. The Crosby’s, OV’s, etc. But now, it seems to be going to players who might be stars, or might be “core” players. I believe this is in nobodies best interest, player and team alike. It takes time to develop into your full potential, as a player, and the right environment. Being thrust into the limelight as “the future” has all too often crushed the development of what might have been good to great players. I believe in the rush to “lock-up” players, skill development has taken a back seat to urgency, and eventually a lot of players will be left unhappy, their reputations ruined, their development stunted and suffering the responsibility for their teams under-performing and being financially hand-cuffed. It would appear to me that many believe Murrays patience in signing his RFA’s is a sign of his displeasure in their performance. I personally do not think that is the case. I believe Murray is looking at the situation as it was intended to be considered, these players are developing, and must be compensated, and fairly challenged as such. Sure he could take a flyer on either Mesz or Vermy, and “hope” they develop into core players, but, in the end, is that really fair to either party? I’m not saying take advantage of them financially, but why should the alternative be to over compensate them? Unfortunately, many GM’s and agents have made these options the only two available, leaving common sense, and fair development in the closet.

Here’s my take on these 2 players, their past performance, their future potential, and their strategic value on the Senators.

Antoine Vermette - 26 yrs, 6′-1″, 200lbs, C-LW-RW, 297 GP, 71G, 68A, +23

Last 3 NHL Seasons

GP - 320/326 = 98.1%

G - 64 = 21.3/yr (7 PP, 12 SH, 45 FOF)

A - 61 = 20.33/yr

Pts - 125 = 41/yr.

Pls/Mns - +18 (FWIW)

ATOI - 11:27

Pts./min - 0.034

PP time - 202 min

PK time - 769 min

2007/08

GP - 81

G - 24 (4 PP, 3 SH, 17 FOF)

A - 29

Pts - 53

Pls/Mns - +3 (FWIW)

ATOI - 17:33

Pts/min - 0.037

PP Time - 119:25

PK Time - 295:26

FOW - 57%

Profile - Antoine is a hard working dedicated team player, who is caught between two worlds. He has so effectively taken to his role as a checking two way winger that his offensive upside has taken a back seat in terms of development. He has long been the victim of playing alongside team-mates possessing superior offensive prowess, which has resulted in his remaining in a 3rd line role. He has superior puck handling skills, but is all too often a victim of making one play too many, and it may be a direct result of trying to impress, combined with a lack of opportunity to hone his offensive skills in the NHL. As a centre he is highly regarded for his speed, agility, and vision on the ice, as well as his top calibre face-off skill. It could be reasonably argued that Antoine is the best penalty killer ever to play with the Senators. He wins draws, plays a superior positional game, and when given the opportunity, adds an offensive element to the penalty kill that keeps the opposition in check for fear of giving up the dreaded short-handed goal.

What is his potential? This is the main issue facing these 2 parties. At a soon to be 26, Vermette wants his crack at a top six role. He has performed judiciously on the 3rd line, and has seen available top six roles go to import players like Comrie and Stillman. Like any person, he feels he’s done his part, in developing his defensive game, and accepting a 3rd line role, and now it’s time for the Senators to either give him his chance, or let him go to realize it elsewhere. Is it about money with Antoine, probably somewhat now (rumour has it he’s seeking 3-3.5M/yr) as he is likely feeling overlooked, and we all know getting the big contract is viewed as a sign of respect. However, at the end of the day, I suspect his salary demands could be tempered with a combination of a commitment by the Senators to giving Antoine his top six role, a longer term deal, and “reasonable” compensation in the 2.25-2.75/yr range.

Murray must decide whether Antoine will in fact be a top six player, because he knows, if he signs him, he is committed to playing him as a top six, or having a frustrated and disgruntled player in the room. No doubt in a perfect world, Murray would like to sign him for 2.25yr, 3yrs, and be able to keep him in a 3rd line role, if this proves to be his full potential, but I highly doubt that can happen without Antoine feeling he wants out, desperately.

Strategically Antoine is virtually irreplaceable in the short-term. His combination of superior defensive play, and offensive upside is highly sought after in the NHL, and we all know, if he were on some other clubs, he’d be a top six guy identified as a core player. In the farm there is simply no player with his combination of skills ready to take over his role. If the Sens were to lose Antoine, they would have to sign a proven defensively conscience top six forward to fill his strategic role, and at this point, they do not exist in free agency, and honestly, why would a team trade a proven one for a chance that Vermette will prove to be the same? Does Murray make a statement to future RFA’s by trading Vermette, even if it means a step back for the roster? Does Murray commit to Vermette as a top six forward, compensate him accordingly, shake hands and move forward, with a twinge of doubt? This is where Murrays experience in the NHL, and more specifically, behind the bench of this team, will come to the fore, and he will be able to decide what exactly Vermette represents to this team, both today, and in the future.

Prediction - Signed to Ottawa - 4yr, 11M, with 2nd & 3rd yr LMC.

Murray knows his options are few, and that although Vermette may never develop into a solid top 6 scoring forward, his combination of skill, speed, age, durability and defensive play makes him too good to lose simply because he isn’t a 35+ goal a year player. Will he go to arbitration? Not if both sides really are committed to each-other. Although probably not signed yet, I would think, once the future of Meszaros is determined, Vermette signing will follow in short order, but not the other way around.

Role - 2nd line winger, 2nd unit PP, 1st unit PK, auxiliary 1st line forward.

2008/09 Predicted Performance

GP - 82

G - 31 (8 PP, 3 SH, 20 FOF)

A -36

Pts -67

Pls/Mns - +3 (FWIW)

ATOI - 20:00

Pts/min - 0.041

PP Time - 246

PK Time - 295:26

FOW - 57%

Andrej Meszaros - 23 yrs, 6′-2″, 218lbs, D, RH shot, 246 GP, 26G, 84A, +24

Last 3 NHL Seasons

GP - 326/326 = 100%

G - 26 = 8.6/yr (11 PP, 1 SH, 14 FOF)

A - 84 = 28/yr (39 PP, 2 SH, 43 FOF)
Pts - 110 = 36.7/yr. ( 45% PP, 3% SH, 52% FOF)

Pls/Mns - +24 (FWIW)

ATOI - 15:19

Pts./min - 0.022

PP time - 748:12 min

PK time - 576:20 min

2007/08

GP - 82

G - 9 (6 PP, 1 SH, 2 FOF)

A - 27 ( 10PP, 0 SH, 17 FOF)

Pts -36 (44% PP 3% SH, 53% FOF)

Pls/Mns - +5 (FWIW)

ATOI -21:01

Pts/min - 0.037

PP Time - 119:25

PK Time - 295:26

Profile - Andrej represents the exact challenge I mentioned above. As a 23 yr old player with three years under his belt, his full potential is still TBD. At this particular point in his development, questions have been raised as to his willingness to absorb punishment to make a play, his tenacity in front of the net versus aggressive and determined forwards, and lastly, his ability to make wise offensive plays from the defensive side of the puck. In his first NHL season he benefited from a contractual situation which saw him gain an NHL opportunity over the then more highly touted Schubert, and, to say the least, he made the best of his opportunity. Playing a primarily 3rd pairing role, Andrej looked cool headed, sure footed, and skilled way beyond his years. Much was expected of him in his sophomore year, and some even pegged him to replace a portion of the void created by the loss of fellow Slovak Chara. Like many sophomores, his game took a step back when put into higher pressure, and demanding situations versus better skilled competitors then was faced in the third pairing. Murray persevered, and allowed Mesz to suit up for all 82 games, continuing to believe that experience, good or bad, will further his development more then a seat in the press box. To be fair, his performance in this second season was far from bad, but it did begin to display some flaws in his game, that many hoped would be resolved by the end of the season. Then came the run to the Cup. In 20 games, he averaged over 20 min in ice time, amassed a decent 7 points, and more importantly, reversed his previously horrendous +/- to a respectable +5. Maybe it was all coming together. Unfortunately, his 3rd year in the league displayed the same faults as before. In some ways, it is hard to separate his play from that of his partners, Wade Redden. What came first, the chicken or the egg? Was Redden not supporting Mesz in his development, or was Mesz exposing Redden to unreasonable pressure due to his lack of aggressiveness, and poor pass selection, ? Honestly, I’m not sure, and I suspect neither is Murray, as was evidenced by Adrej’s dwindling late season PP and PK time.  This is the crux of the issue in signing Mesz. Complicating matters is the fact that in this past off-season, several defenseman with poorer numbers, have signed for big money (worst of all being Finger who, thanks to an outrageous contract from the still silly spending Leafs, is now earning 3.5M/yr/4yr, after playing only 1, and relatively mediocre, career NHL season.  Understandably, Mesz’s camp feels he deserves atleast the same. Does he? The lack of an offer sheet might suggest otherwise. So, if Finger received such a deal, why aren’t GM’s tripping over themselves to sheet Mesz? Honestly, probably because the same GM’s that passed on the crazy deals that were made for UFA’s, are the ones looking at Mesz, and seeing little more of value then was available via free agency, and now having to give up picks to sign him. Then where does this leave Murray? Basically, nowhere, and stratigically, that’s a problem for a GM trying to fill out his roster.  I suspect, but this is only my opinion, not substantiated at all, that Murray is offering Mesz around to select teams, in return for select players.  It’s possible, just possible, that each club has allowed the other to attempt to work out deals for the others RFA’s.  Like who? Bowmeester and Seabrook are the 2 most likely candidates. Bowmeester has apparently made no bones about wanting out of Florida, and has filed for arbitration to attempt to either expedite a trade, or set himself up for a 1 yr deal. This would leave Florida out in the cold come next off season, if they don’t work a trade for JBo.  Basically, Murray says to Martin what he’s willing to pay for JBo, and vise versa Matin for Mesz. If everyone agrees, a sign a trade follows. Same goes for Seabrook, but in the Chicago case, it’s not that simple. Their motivation wouldn’t be to trade Seabrook, but to move Khabiboulin and his 6.7M contract. So it would be a sign and trade of Mesz, with Gerber, for Khabi and Seabrook. The question is, do Seabrook or JBo really represent better value then Mesz? From a production point of view, pts/min, Mesz out-performed both of them last season. From a defensive point of view they all appear to be in the much the same boat. Assuming a deal is even possible, do you move a developing 23 yr old Dman for one in the same in Seabrook, and take on a terrible contract in Khabiboulin? Do you trade Mesz to Florida, along with a pick, prospect or other depth forward for JBo, and sign him to a 6 to 6.5M dollar deal? Or do you attempt to squeeze Mesz into accepting a 2 - 2.5M deal, and hope his hurt pride doesn’t translate into a backslide in his development. Or, lastly, do you sign him for 3.5M/yr, and risk dressing room strife, and the turmoil a new bad defensive contract (if it comes to be) will create within the media?

Prediction

Mesz packaged in a trade to Chicago for another Dman.

Episode 4 - A New Hope.

Ok, I know, I ripped off the title from Star Wars, but come on, you must admit, it fits. UFA day +8, and us Sens fanatics have all but worn off our computers refresh buttons. Every time I checked to see if Murray had made a move, and he hadn’t, that gnawing feeling of doubt grew heavier. Was this it? We’re the Sens really going to dress half a team of rookies? Now, I know this year is a re-load, and our crop of rookies looks to be comprised of some solid NHL contenders, but even I was concerned at the prospect of Mesz and Schubert playing together for 20+ minutes a game. To be fair, the signing of Jason Smith is far from a home run all star signing, but it does provide for some interesting off ice intangibles and predictable on ice play. Through-out his career, Jason has always been known as a blood and guts competitor, the kind of teammate that takes responsibility for his ice time, and expects the same of those sharing his locker room. He has had the opportunity to lead a team of over-achievers to the finals, and helped guide a squad of wet behind the ears hopefuls from the brink of indignity to a very respectable showing in the post season. All of this while playing a very simple, albeit dedicated defensive style. Let’s be clear about this, don’t expect anything more on the ice from Smith then you would from Volchy, with the exception of the occasional fisticuff. He will hit, he will block shots, and he will defend. He will not rush with the puck, and he will not score. In fact, Volchy looks like Coffey when compared to Smiths offensive game. How does this mesh with Murrays clamouring for a puck moving PP quarterback Dman….it doesn’t. But it speaks volumes about his intention to fill the room with character players, who will demand as much from their teammates as they do of themselves. And after last seasons debacle, hells, unmitigated disaster, Mr. Smith represents a lot of something many of us have been looking for….A new hope.

Episode 3…Forward (w)ho(a)!

The recent spate of free agent signings certainly give value seekers time for pause. Has it really come to the point that, under this new salary cap era, an aging 2nd line forward can command a more then 100% pay increase, and a 4 year term? It seems what is taking place is a mix of two circumstances. 1. Poor salary management. I would use this to define the signing of Wade Redden to 6.5M/yr 6yrs. The New York Rangers have the money to spend to the cap, but does that mean they need to throw it away? 2. Poor working conditions. I would use teams like CLB, FLA, and even the much fan lauded TML as examples of teams that have been forced to anti up a little (ok, a lot) extra to lure UFA’s into playing in what their colleagues consider to be either basket case locker rooms, or apathetic hockey markets.

So, how has this effected the Senators ability to address the long festering issue of secondary scoring? It hasn’t. In fact, it has likely far worsened the situation. Not only did they lose Stillman to the hockey hot bed of Miami Florida (where all greedy players go to retire…on ice), but it has also stifled Murrays ability to sign replacement players to fair valued contracts. In many ways, the loss of M. Havlat, for what has amounted to a bag of pucks and a couple of marginal NHL calibre players, has rotted the core out of the once shiny red apple that was the Senators depth at scoring. But, alas, all is not lost. It’s not like Stillman packed a real punch in Ottawa, and yet the team finished as the best offensive team 5 on 5 and short handed (let’s not mention the PP, I’ll get to that blackhole at a later date) in the NHL for 2007/08. Scoring per say is not a major issue, but, when injuries occur on the top line, scoring doesn’t simply slow, it stops, cold. That’s a problem. We fans know it, the competition knows it, and, most importantly, Murray knows it.

In terms of second line scoring, where is the team right now? At centre is Fisher. Ummmm, did I mention Fisher already? Yes? We’ll, then I guess that’s it. Seriously.

Now, I don’t want to pile on after coming off of a bad year, but Fisher is not known as being a particularly prolific producer. Look, the guy is a rock, has tremendous work ethic, and grit, and is without a doubt one of the best character guys in the league, but when Canadas’ team is down 2 goals in the last half of the third, you rarely find yourself thinking “Quick Murray, get Fisher out there!”. Fisher’s scoring touch was so cold last year, that when Stillman came on board, he spent more time along side Vermette and Kelly, then Fisher and mystery top six player of the moment. So, logically, what are the remaining options in addressing the lack of depth on the 2nd line? The way I see it, there are only 3 options in improving any club at this time of year, not including a straight up trade.

Sign a reasonably priced UFA - Note this was not sign a UFA, because (if you haven’t already noticed) I’m not a believer that a bad contract ever makes for an improvement…ever. That being said, whose left out there that could help on the second line?

RW - Brendan Shannahan

RW - Teemu Selanne

C - Peter Forsberg

(Noticing the trend here?)

C - Mats Sundin

C- Joe Sakic

RW/LW - Jason Williams

LW - Pavol Dmitra

2. The RFA offer sheet route. A look at who is rumoured to be available via trade and who remains eligible for an offer sheet;

C - Patrick O’Sullivan (RFA)

C - Jarret Stoll (RFA)

#3. The internal promotion. Who are the most likely candidates?

LW-C-RW - Antoinne Vermette

LW - Nick Foligno

C - Ilya Zubov

Still some options, and with a powerhouse first line, Murray is wise to not break the bank in an effort to round out the scoring.

Episode 2 - Gary Needs to Plan an Intervention.

Does Gary need to ambush some of his GM’s with an economic intervention? I can just picture it, a few GM’s meet in the parking lot of the Scottsdale Fairmont, ready for a special golf engagement with Gary, thinking this life as an NHL GM is the greatest gig on earth. They step into Gary’s hotel room, and wham, Burke jumps out from the bathroom and leads them to empty chairs already surrounded by fellow NHL GM’s, telling them he loves them, but…..well, you know how it goes from here.

What has me posting this? well, humour me, and let’s role play for a moment. Lets face it, as hockey fans, we role play all the time. We may not openly admit it, but most of us think we could be an NHL GM, and all of us think we could do a better job then 33% of them out there. So, lets all put on our fantasy GM’s hats, and consider the following proposed deal;

Dan Boyle - 32yrs old - 6.667Myr/6yr.

For -

2008 1st rnd pick,

2009 1st rnd pick,

Ty Wishart - 20 yrs (8.0 C rated defensive prospect, your teams ONLY NHL calibre defensive prospect)

Matt Carle - 23 yrs - 3.438Myr/4yr (A1 rated prospective puck moving offensive Dman)

Steve Bernier - 23 yr, RFA (A1 rated prospective power forward)

Let me put this in strategic terms.

A solid puck moving and offensive Dman, with a spotty defensive game, who is entering into the last half of his career, but signed to a long term contract, for your near term draft future (which would develop just as Boyles’ contract expires), your best development prospect and 2 of your 3 NHL ready prospects.

Would you make this deal?

If you say yes, your fantasy invitation to a golf day in Scottsdale is in the mail.