Ottawa Senators

Freedom is not worth having if it does not connote freedom to err.

I bet most of you didn’t know Ghandi was a big hockey fan now did you? I think what he might have been trying to say in this quote, is that, although free to do as they choose, RFA’s are still faced with the intrinsic risk of making the wrong choice, in the exercising of their new found contractual freedoms. This is certainly the case in Ottawa, for both sides.

Much has been written about Ottawa’s two leading RFA’s, namely Andrej Meszaros, and Antoine Vermette. Before taking a look at these players, I’d first like to say that I believe many NHL GM’s have done a huge disservice to the NHL, and even the players. One of the great mistakes in life (I think) is the belief that money is the root to happiness. Player agents, although a necessity in the complex world of professional sports, are often driven exclusively by the players salary, as this in effect determines their salary. The agent is not the one who risks the burden of being compared to too high a salary. The agent doesn’t suffer the unhappiness of playing in a undesirable location or locker room. The player does. But far too often, I believe, the player is guided towards the money, and only the money. This leads to some young players signing for deals they cannot reasonably play up to, and to sign into situations that do not suit their own development, or compliment their personal quality of life, beyond a big pay check. I also believe it forces both players and GM’s into making decisions about a players potential far too soon in the players development. This can create strife in a locker room where young players, from their agents mouth to their egos, believe they are not just rookie or sophomore players, but full fledged NHL core guys. At one time, the big RFA contract was reserved for bona fide star’s. The Crosby’s, OV’s, etc. But now, it seems to be going to players who might be stars, or might be “core” players. I believe this is in nobodies best interest, player and team alike. It takes time to develop into your full potential, as a player, and the right environment. Being thrust into the limelight as “the future” has all too often crushed the development of what might have been good to great players. I believe in the rush to “lock-up” players, skill development has taken a back seat to urgency, and eventually a lot of players will be left unhappy, their reputations ruined, their development stunted and suffering the responsibility for their teams under-performing and being financially hand-cuffed. It would appear to me that many believe Murrays patience in signing his RFA’s is a sign of his displeasure in their performance. I personally do not think that is the case. I believe Murray is looking at the situation as it was intended to be considered, these players are developing, and must be compensated, and fairly challenged as such. Sure he could take a flyer on either Mesz or Vermy, and “hope” they develop into core players, but, in the end, is that really fair to either party? I’m not saying take advantage of them financially, but why should the alternative be to over compensate them? Unfortunately, many GM’s and agents have made these options the only two available, leaving common sense, and fair development in the closet.

Here’s my take on these 2 players, their past performance, their future potential, and their strategic value on the Senators.

Antoine Vermette - 26 yrs, 6′-1″, 200lbs, C-LW-RW, 297 GP, 71G, 68A, +23

Last 3 NHL Seasons

GP - 320/326 = 98.1%

G - 64 = 21.3/yr (7 PP, 12 SH, 45 FOF)

A - 61 = 20.33/yr

Pts - 125 = 41/yr.

Pls/Mns - +18 (FWIW)

ATOI - 11:27

Pts./min - 0.034

PP time - 202 min

PK time - 769 min

2007/08

GP - 81

G - 24 (4 PP, 3 SH, 17 FOF)

A - 29

Pts - 53

Pls/Mns - +3 (FWIW)

ATOI - 17:33

Pts/min - 0.037

PP Time - 119:25

PK Time - 295:26

FOW - 57%

Profile - Antoine is a hard working dedicated team player, who is caught between two worlds. He has so effectively taken to his role as a checking two way winger that his offensive upside has taken a back seat in terms of development. He has long been the victim of playing alongside team-mates possessing superior offensive prowess, which has resulted in his remaining in a 3rd line role. He has superior puck handling skills, but is all too often a victim of making one play too many, and it may be a direct result of trying to impress, combined with a lack of opportunity to hone his offensive skills in the NHL. As a centre he is highly regarded for his speed, agility, and vision on the ice, as well as his top calibre face-off skill. It could be reasonably argued that Antoine is the best penalty killer ever to play with the Senators. He wins draws, plays a superior positional game, and when given the opportunity, adds an offensive element to the penalty kill that keeps the opposition in check for fear of giving up the dreaded short-handed goal.

What is his potential? This is the main issue facing these 2 parties. At a soon to be 26, Vermette wants his crack at a top six role. He has performed judiciously on the 3rd line, and has seen available top six roles go to import players like Comrie and Stillman. Like any person, he feels he’s done his part, in developing his defensive game, and accepting a 3rd line role, and now it’s time for the Senators to either give him his chance, or let him go to realize it elsewhere. Is it about money with Antoine, probably somewhat now (rumour has it he’s seeking 3-3.5M/yr) as he is likely feeling overlooked, and we all know getting the big contract is viewed as a sign of respect. However, at the end of the day, I suspect his salary demands could be tempered with a combination of a commitment by the Senators to giving Antoine his top six role, a longer term deal, and “reasonable” compensation in the 2.25-2.75/yr range.

Murray must decide whether Antoine will in fact be a top six player, because he knows, if he signs him, he is committed to playing him as a top six, or having a frustrated and disgruntled player in the room. No doubt in a perfect world, Murray would like to sign him for 2.25yr, 3yrs, and be able to keep him in a 3rd line role, if this proves to be his full potential, but I highly doubt that can happen without Antoine feeling he wants out, desperately.

Strategically Antoine is virtually irreplaceable in the short-term. His combination of superior defensive play, and offensive upside is highly sought after in the NHL, and we all know, if he were on some other clubs, he’d be a top six guy identified as a core player. In the farm there is simply no player with his combination of skills ready to take over his role. If the Sens were to lose Antoine, they would have to sign a proven defensively conscience top six forward to fill his strategic role, and at this point, they do not exist in free agency, and honestly, why would a team trade a proven one for a chance that Vermette will prove to be the same? Does Murray make a statement to future RFA’s by trading Vermette, even if it means a step back for the roster? Does Murray commit to Vermette as a top six forward, compensate him accordingly, shake hands and move forward, with a twinge of doubt? This is where Murrays experience in the NHL, and more specifically, behind the bench of this team, will come to the fore, and he will be able to decide what exactly Vermette represents to this team, both today, and in the future.

Prediction - Signed to Ottawa - 4yr, 11M, with 2nd & 3rd yr LMC.

Murray knows his options are few, and that although Vermette may never develop into a solid top 6 scoring forward, his combination of skill, speed, age, durability and defensive play makes him too good to lose simply because he isn’t a 35+ goal a year player. Will he go to arbitration? Not if both sides really are committed to each-other. Although probably not signed yet, I would think, once the future of Meszaros is determined, Vermette signing will follow in short order, but not the other way around.

Role - 2nd line winger, 2nd unit PP, 1st unit PK, auxiliary 1st line forward.

2008/09 Predicted Performance

GP - 82

G - 31 (8 PP, 3 SH, 20 FOF)

A -36

Pts -67

Pls/Mns - +3 (FWIW)

ATOI - 20:00

Pts/min - 0.041

PP Time - 246

PK Time - 295:26

FOW - 57%

Andrej Meszaros - 23 yrs, 6′-2″, 218lbs, D, RH shot, 246 GP, 26G, 84A, +24

Last 3 NHL Seasons

GP - 326/326 = 100%

G - 26 = 8.6/yr (11 PP, 1 SH, 14 FOF)

A - 84 = 28/yr (39 PP, 2 SH, 43 FOF)
Pts - 110 = 36.7/yr. ( 45% PP, 3% SH, 52% FOF)

Pls/Mns - +24 (FWIW)

ATOI - 15:19

Pts./min - 0.022

PP time - 748:12 min

PK time - 576:20 min

2007/08

GP - 82

G - 9 (6 PP, 1 SH, 2 FOF)

A - 27 ( 10PP, 0 SH, 17 FOF)

Pts -36 (44% PP 3% SH, 53% FOF)

Pls/Mns - +5 (FWIW)

ATOI -21:01

Pts/min - 0.037

PP Time - 119:25

PK Time - 295:26

Profile - Andrej represents the exact challenge I mentioned above. As a 23 yr old player with three years under his belt, his full potential is still TBD. At this particular point in his development, questions have been raised as to his willingness to absorb punishment to make a play, his tenacity in front of the net versus aggressive and determined forwards, and lastly, his ability to make wise offensive plays from the defensive side of the puck. In his first NHL season he benefited from a contractual situation which saw him gain an NHL opportunity over the then more highly touted Schubert, and, to say the least, he made the best of his opportunity. Playing a primarily 3rd pairing role, Andrej looked cool headed, sure footed, and skilled way beyond his years. Much was expected of him in his sophomore year, and some even pegged him to replace a portion of the void created by the loss of fellow Slovak Chara. Like many sophomores, his game took a step back when put into higher pressure, and demanding situations versus better skilled competitors then was faced in the third pairing. Murray persevered, and allowed Mesz to suit up for all 82 games, continuing to believe that experience, good or bad, will further his development more then a seat in the press box. To be fair, his performance in this second season was far from bad, but it did begin to display some flaws in his game, that many hoped would be resolved by the end of the season. Then came the run to the Cup. In 20 games, he averaged over 20 min in ice time, amassed a decent 7 points, and more importantly, reversed his previously horrendous +/- to a respectable +5. Maybe it was all coming together. Unfortunately, his 3rd year in the league displayed the same faults as before. In some ways, it is hard to separate his play from that of his partners, Wade Redden. What came first, the chicken or the egg? Was Redden not supporting Mesz in his development, or was Mesz exposing Redden to unreasonable pressure due to his lack of aggressiveness, and poor pass selection, ? Honestly, I’m not sure, and I suspect neither is Murray, as was evidenced by Adrej’s dwindling late season PP and PK time.  This is the crux of the issue in signing Mesz. Complicating matters is the fact that in this past off-season, several defenseman with poorer numbers, have signed for big money (worst of all being Finger who, thanks to an outrageous contract from the still silly spending Leafs, is now earning 3.5M/yr/4yr, after playing only 1, and relatively mediocre, career NHL season.  Understandably, Mesz’s camp feels he deserves atleast the same. Does he? The lack of an offer sheet might suggest otherwise. So, if Finger received such a deal, why aren’t GM’s tripping over themselves to sheet Mesz? Honestly, probably because the same GM’s that passed on the crazy deals that were made for UFA’s, are the ones looking at Mesz, and seeing little more of value then was available via free agency, and now having to give up picks to sign him. Then where does this leave Murray? Basically, nowhere, and stratigically, that’s a problem for a GM trying to fill out his roster.  I suspect, but this is only my opinion, not substantiated at all, that Murray is offering Mesz around to select teams, in return for select players.  It’s possible, just possible, that each club has allowed the other to attempt to work out deals for the others RFA’s.  Like who? Bowmeester and Seabrook are the 2 most likely candidates. Bowmeester has apparently made no bones about wanting out of Florida, and has filed for arbitration to attempt to either expedite a trade, or set himself up for a 1 yr deal. This would leave Florida out in the cold come next off season, if they don’t work a trade for JBo.  Basically, Murray says to Martin what he’s willing to pay for JBo, and vise versa Matin for Mesz. If everyone agrees, a sign a trade follows. Same goes for Seabrook, but in the Chicago case, it’s not that simple. Their motivation wouldn’t be to trade Seabrook, but to move Khabiboulin and his 6.7M contract. So it would be a sign and trade of Mesz, with Gerber, for Khabi and Seabrook. The question is, do Seabrook or JBo really represent better value then Mesz? From a production point of view, pts/min, Mesz out-performed both of them last season. From a defensive point of view they all appear to be in the much the same boat. Assuming a deal is even possible, do you move a developing 23 yr old Dman for one in the same in Seabrook, and take on a terrible contract in Khabiboulin? Do you trade Mesz to Florida, along with a pick, prospect or other depth forward for JBo, and sign him to a 6 to 6.5M dollar deal? Or do you attempt to squeeze Mesz into accepting a 2 - 2.5M deal, and hope his hurt pride doesn’t translate into a backslide in his development. Or, lastly, do you sign him for 3.5M/yr, and risk dressing room strife, and the turmoil a new bad defensive contract (if it comes to be) will create within the media?

Prediction

Mesz packaged in a trade to Chicago for another Dman.