Ottawa Senators

Episode 6 - E I E I O (Oh?)…

If this were the classic children’s song, and ol’ MacDonald had a (Senators prospect) farm, you had better hope it was a short car ride, because frankly, ol’ MacDonald aint got a lot to sing about down on his farm.

If you were to restrict your analysis to the oft quoted, but even more dubious opinions of a certain hockey prospects website, Ottawa is deep in the bottom third of the league in prospect depth. This can be attributed in large part to 2 key factors, poor draft positioning after years of solid performance by the big club, and some unfortunate choices by the men in charge (rhymes with tuckler, but starts with an M…). But, to be fair, the draft position is far and away the biggest culprit in the Senators current lacking in prospect depth. Over the last few years Ottawa has attempted to compensate for their lack of high picks by drafting younger, less developed players, with high skill, instead of more proven players, with less skill, and secondly, to focus on much the same from Europe. The strategy was, and until this seasons 1st over-all pick, is to try to find those diamonds in the rough that other teams will pass over because they already took a decent prospect higher up, and will now focus on “depth” players with a more proven pedigree lower in the draft. This has resulted in picks such as Ben Blood, Brian Lee, Jim O’brien, Kaspars Daugevins, Peter Regin, none of whom having had experience in the N.A. Junior ranks.

But alas, all is not lost, and to be honest, all is not even particularly worrisome. Because although ol’ MacDonald may not have a lot to sing about, he does have a fair bit to crow about, and when it comes to depth, quality is more important then quantity. Fortunately for the Sens, the “New” NHL has been kind to their draft record. Prior to the lock-out, big, and mean out matched average and skilled. This left the Sens with the opportunity to pick up some average sized, but higher skilled players late in the draft, who are now bearing fruit, while other teams were blowing their high picks on size over skill.

The question now, when looking at prospects, is what are they, and how does that mesh with the Senators needs. Again, fortunately, with a number of these diamonds in the rough beginning to sparkle, the Sens have artfully designed their long term signings around what is on the tractor from the farm. It is more then fair to say that top end offensive talent is not represented in the Sens prospects. This isn’t to say they’re all luggers, but there isn’t likely a Toews in the bunch. To plan around this reality, Murray has locked up a young and talented offensive core in Spezza and Heatley. Assuming Alfie continues to play at a high level for a couple more seasons, and Fisher proves to have an average or better offensive game, this leaves only the need for second line offensive talent, so without further adieu, here they are;

Second Line Forwards

Ilya Zubov - This young Russian likely represents the pick of the litter from the ‘87 Russian class. Ilya developed his early game in the Traktor hockey school, and began his professional career in the RHL, where he quickly grew into a steady contributor. He is also a product of the Team Russia development program, and after some solid play in several international tournaments, made the jump to the REL, where he moved around considerably, and continued to impress as a clutch performer in the post season.

In 2007/08 Ilya chose to come to NA, and risk accepting a role on the AHL Bingo Senators. He hoped to land a role in the NHL, but, after being one of the final cuts at training camp, energetically accepted the opportunity to improve his physical game, and earn much needed experience in the NA style of play and arena. He is recognized as being a very mature person, and in being very coach able. He worked tirelessly as a third and second line centre, and was rewarded with an injury call up to the NHL.

Ilya made his second appearance at the Sens development camp earlier this summer, and unfortunately appeared to be somewhat out of condition. His over-all talent with the puck, as a passer, handler and shooter, continued to impress the coaches, as did his developing willingness to engage in physical play, both from the offensive and defensive side of the puck.

It was clearly communicated to Ilya that the coaches had 3 key areas that he had to work on if he wanted a real chance to make the big club this season;

1. Over handling the puck in the offensive zone. Ilya is highly talented in this regard, but he will be taken advantage of by faster, and more highly skilled NHL defenders if he carries on with this same propensity in the NHL. Ilya has both a great shot, and excellent play making skills, and it will be stressed that he will have to rely more heavily on this aspect of his game if he wishes to earn the coaches trust and play a regular shift in the NHL.

2. Two way commitment. Ilya has good natural instincts in this regard, but has a propensity to allow too much separation between him and his check, in an effort to realize an offensive opportunity. This has plagued his game through-out his development, and has frustrated many of his coaches, as he is often only just slightly out of position, which shows it is a choice, not a lack of skill or laziness. This is a common criticism of young players who have gained success through their offensive skills, and in many ways Ilya represents a player with a better then average defensive ability. Now it is a matter of his coaches making him realize this isn’t the RHL anymore, and his offensive talents are no longer considerably above average, making his defensive errors all the more glaring and unacceptable.

3. Conditioning. The issue at the recent DC was a matter of aerobic fitness, not weight. He has added a considerable amount of muscle to his previously lanky 6-1 frame, but he did let himself go from a cardio standpoint in the brief off season, and it showed. Ilya was shown up considerably in this regard by the two players he is most having to supersede if he wishes to crack the Senators line-up this fall, namely Nick Foligno, and Jesse Winchester, who both looked like cardio machines at the DC. In a refreshing commitment to his development, Ilya has chosen to remain in Ottawa for the rest of this off season, and will join fellow prospects Bass, Foligno and Winchester in working with R. Lee on their physical preparedness for this seasons up coming training camp. This has not gone unnoticed by either Sens management or coaching staff.

Likely potential - Ilya certainly has the skill, and drive to make a career out of playing in the NHL, but at 21, he’s not yet a lock in this regard, and would definitely benefit from another year playing in the AHL, and assuming a bigger role on the team. His willingness to commit to his development in this regard has, up until now, been enchanting to the Senators, who, like many other NHL clubs, have been burned by young Russian prospects unwilling to earn their stripes in the minors. Will this continue if he fails to make the club this fall? Only time will tell, but there’s no doubt that the Senators will impress upon Ilya that he is definitely in their future plans, and they highly value his remaining on course in his development as an NHL’er. From a strategic perspective Ilya represents Ottawa’s best short term offensive prospect, and will likely only make the NHL on the strength of this aspect of his game. Luckily, as of right now, the Senators are bereft of second line talent, and this may very well play right into Ilya’s skill set if he can impress the coaches with his offensive game at the upcoming training camp. At this point, and assuming no changes in the Senators forward roster, Ilya stands a 50-60% chance of cracking the line-up this fall, and a 80% chance a being considered the first call-up in the depth chart.

Alexander Nikulin - Alexander is another terrific prospect, and was regarded as being as high as the 5th best Russian of his draft group, a heady ranking considering it included the likes of O.V. and Malkin. To be fair, nobody is attempting to make comparisons with these generational talents (and in O.V.’s case, maybe the talent of the 21 st century) but it is a good indicator as to his potential as an NHL player. Nikulin developed his skill as a member of the CSKA school, eventually making it from the 2 junior club in 2003/04 to continues showings in the Elite league for 52 games in 05/06, and again in 06/07. He is also a product of the Team Russia development program, having played in a number of international tournaments.

At 22 Nikulin decided to take his shot at the NHL, figuring that it was now or never, and was willing to bide his time in the minors to get there. But he did leave his REL team believing he would either make the Sens straight out of training camp, or be restricted to playing only a short stint before being called up permanently. Unfortunately for Alexander, Nick Foligno caught the eye of the club, straight out of junior, and shot past Nikulin on the Senators depth chart. Where Nikulin had only 2 starts in the NHL in 07/08, Foligno had 45, including another 4 in the post season.

Coming out of training camp, Nikulin made it to the final cut, and was tasked with acclimating himself to the NA game, and culture in Bingo of the AHL. Nikulin did play well in the NHL, and in 71 games amassed 50 pts., not a bad showing for his first exposure to professional hockey in North America. Nikulin is known mostly for his play-making ability, and puck posession game. He does posess a better then average wrist shot, but is the sort of player who makes those around him better, not the otherway around. He is a reasonably physical player, and does not shy away from contact, or one on one battles for the puck. He is not however a particularly agressive checker, but is not shy either. Although 22 at the time, last years training camp was Nikulins first time playing for the Senators, and he spent the summer training with his Russian club before coming over in late August. Nikulin remains under contract with CKSA, and would be eligeable to return should he choose to do so in an agreement reached between the Senators and CKSA. Nikulin did attend this summers DC, and like his Russian teammate Zubov, showed up out of condition. At the DC he did not show much improvement in his game over that of the previous years training camp, despite his time in the AHL, and barring a great showing at this falls training camp is unlikely to usurp Zubov as the Senators top second line offensive prospect. The big question is whether or not Nikulin would return to the AHL or CKSA, should he not make the Senators.

Likely Potential - Nikulin is an NHL calibre player, but at this point he likely does not possess the offensive talent required of the Sens in a second line forward role. Nikulin does possess the speed, skill and physical willingness to effectively play a third line centre role, but unfortunately for him, this is a role represented by a number of players already on the Senators roster. He will most likely be offered an invitation to further refine his skills in Bingo for the 08/09 season, with further opportunity for injury call-ups. If the Senators feel he is unlikely to accept this arrangement, expect to see him traded before the start of the regular season. Nikulin has a 30-40% chance of cracking the Sens line up, but in order to do so will have to knock Foligno out of his reigning #1 prospect status by showing determined physical play, a strong work ethic, and some intriguing offensive potential.

Kaspars Daugavins - Kaspars is a product of the Latvian National development program, he evenplayed in the WC at the age of only 17, and notched an impressive 6 pts. in 6 games vs men. He later played his first professional hockey in the Belarusion Extraliga with HK Riga 2000. After that one year in the BHL, Kaspars was selected 3rd over-all by Melnyk’s own St. Mikes Majors of the CHL in the 2006/07 import draft. In his rookie season, Daugavins turned some heads by producing 60 pts and finishing 6th in scoring among rookies, a crop which included such names as Kane, Gagner, and a young phenom, Stamkos.  Daugavins followed up this impressive performance by further increasing his points total to 74, including 40 goals, tying the same goal scoring output as the highly touted Tavares.  His superior performance earned him a role on the OHL all-star team.  All this while playing on a very weak club.

Kaspars is a players player. He battles hard down low, shows a dedicated work ethic, and provides great leadership both on the ice and in the dressing room. In hockey vernacular, he’s a character guy. At 20 he has shown tremendous development in all aspects of his game, and has filled out his projectable frame to an impressive 213 lbs. Although not a hitter in the strict sense of the word, he is not shy about physical contact, and is agressive in driving to and battling in front of the oppositions net. Daugavins possesses a tremendous skating ability, and superior play-making abilities. He has played 13 games in the AHL, and is a lock to play in Bingo this up coming season.

Potential - As a winger, Daugavins represents a dark horse for cracking the Senators line-up. His size, international experience, North American experience, and hockey skills just might fit nicely alongside Fisher on the second line. Hartsburg no doubt is well aware of Daugavins, and this could possibly play into his favour, as could his affiliation with Melnyk’s St. Mikes Majors. There is no doubt that Daugavins is a player drawing a lot of attention from the Senators brass, and like Foligno last season, his work ethic, and character just might land him a spot on the Senators this fall. Kaspars has a 40-50% chance of making the Sens this fall, if he can build on his good showing at the DC earlier this summer. If not, he will suit up for the baby Sens, and be a key call up in case of injury to non offensive minded players.
Feel free to leave a comment, and let me know what you think about these posts, the Sens in general, and ideas for further blogs.