Defense wins Championships
September 7th, 2008 by Gerald NortonIs there a more common refrain in professional team sports? And if in fact this is true, how does Ottawa look this coming season?
There’s no doubt that Murray has made some big moves on defense. And there’s no doubt defense was an issue contributing to the rapid decline of the Senators last season. Gone are Redden, Meszaros, and Corvo. In are Smith, Kuba, and Picard.
To determine the impact of these moves, let’s look at each players role, attributes, and ice time.
Original
Redden (TGA = 88, GA/20min = 0.99)
1st PP, 2nd PK, #3 ES defense
Redden is a well known commodity to Sens fans, and has always been a love’em or hate’em player. But since signing his 2 yr, 13M dollar contract, he’s been more hate’em then love’em, being all but aboned by all but the most fanatical fan. Well known for his poise and first pass, Redden’s play has diminished so precipitously, that he lost his role on the first PP, and was all but begged to waive his NTC before the deadline. In terms of ice time, he was paired most frequently with Meszaros, and against the oppositions 2nd line. The best forward Redden played the most ES minutes against last season was Pominville, with 47 minutes, and 4 goals against in that time.
Meszaros (TGA = 88, GA/20min = 1.02)
1st PP, 2nd PK, #4 ES defense
Meszaros broke into the league with an amazing rookie performance, but like Redden, has seriously stumbled from a defensive side of the game. Mesz has become known for his unwillingness to receive physical contact in order to make a play, and his often inexplicable give-aways. But, he did log a considerable number of minutes on the back end, and was a consistent offensive performer, especially on the power play. Meszaros, like Redden did not face the oppositions top line. The best forward of note to face Meszaros, on a consistent basis, was Pominville, who tallied 3 goals in 52 minutes against.
Replacements
Kuba (TGA = 107, GA/20 = 1.14)
1st PP, 1st PK, #1 ES defense
Last season Kuba was paired most often with Paul Ranger, who, as a young Dman, was known for his defensive lapses. Kuba played against the oppositions #1 lines, including 90 5 on 5 minutes vs. Ovechkin, yet held him to only 4 goals. The player to score the most 5 on 5 goals against Kuba was Havelid, with 6 goals in 54 min of vs. time. When examining Kuba’s GA number, it must be kept in mind that Tampa was the worst team in the league.
Smith (TGA = 67 GA/20 = 0.97)
1st PK, #4 ES defense
Jason Smithy is well known as a blood and guts defenseman. Don’t look for offense, but old time defensive play, with a mean streak. Jason is purely a defensive specialist, and will not compare to Meszaros in an offensive role, but will replace his 5 on 5 and SH minutes. Smith faced the oppositions 1st and 2nd lines, and played most often vs Jaromir Jagr, to whom he surrendered 3 goals in 45 min against. It should be noted that Smith was also paired with newly acquired Picard for over 28 of ES minutes while Picard was in Philly.
Picard (TGA = 20 GA/20 = 0.91)
2nd PK, #4 ES defense
Picard has bounced around between the AHL and NHL for the last few seasons, but as a 21 year old, logged 62 NHL games, and last year played in 24 NHL games, after finding a regular shift with TBL. While in Tampa Picard fast became a fan favourite for his determined physical play and sound 2 way contribution on the blueline. Impressively, Picard logged his most minutes vs. top line players, including over 27 min vs Ovechkin, allowing only one goal in that time. This kids gonna be a gamer, big time.
Conclusions
With the addition of Kuba, a player who can play, or at least compete in a more physical match up, and bring to the Senators a proven record vs. the oppositions #1 lines, there is clearly an up grade over Redden of the past two seasons. With a proven track record as a PP QB, and puck mover, Kuba may actually improve on Reddens offensive contribution as well. All in all, at 3M, Kuba represents a stellar replacement for Redden.
The combination of Smith and Picard brings to the Senators a vast increase in grit and defensive play over Redden and Meszaros, and will result in vastly improved defensive zone coverage.
From a purely defensive point of view, Ottawa is leaps and bound ahead of where they were last season. The out standing issue is offense, and apart from Kuba, this has not been clearly adressed. It is expected that the remaining offense lost along with Mesz and Corvo will be covered by Lee and Schubert, but as this will be a new challenge for both, predicting the outcome is highly speculative at this point.
Posted in Uncategorized
13 Responses to “Defense wins Championships”
By Gerald Norton on Sep 7, 2008
First off I’m not sure where you get your information about Picard, but it’s inaccurate. He has developed into an extremely aggressive player over the past 2 seasons in the Philly organization. In terms of defense vs offense, although he was considered offensively gifted in the minors and minor pro, his bread and butter in the NHL will be his two way play with an emphasis on defense. Expect to see him playing a regular shift on the Senators in the 3rd pairing.
The give-away/take-away ratio is interesting, but it lacks zone inference, and is highly susceptible to rink bias. This is a particularly weak stat, much like +/-, or hits. Even when using adjusted numbers, which remain non zone specific, Kuba is still rated decently, ahead of such players as Roszival, Zetterburg, Kaberle, Bouwmeester, Brewer, Chara, and Datsyuk in term of give-aways.
Also don’t forget that the level of competition and ice time for Kuba is much greater then that represented in Mesz’s numbers. This is where one has to be sure to be making fair comparisons which Kuba and Meszaros are not. Kuba played the equivalent of 7 extra Mesz games, and all of his minutes were as a #1 Dman vs top line forwards, to Mesz’s #4 Dman roll.
As for Smiths minutes, one must be sure to extract from his role PP time, which, in Reddens case, was the equivalent of 3:48 a game. Subtract this from Reddens ATOI = 19:24 ATOI, which falls well within Smiths ability range. He played over 21 minutes a game 2 seasons ago in EDM, and 18 min a game last season. He’s 35, not 38.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 8, 2008
Marc, I’m simply saying that relying on one stat, in isolation, that is known to be neither robust, nor zone specific, makes drawing final conclusions relating to it rather dubious. My argument of Kuba’s sound defensive play rests in his ice time, line-mates, role, GA, and competition.
In terms of Picards “scouting report”, well what can I say? My opinion is based upon interviews with his team mates, former coach, discussions with Tampa fans, and personal observations over the course of the last 3 years. I would say that “scouting report” would have been 100% accurate 3 years ago, but is sadly out of date, and inaccurate. I do not expect you to believe me, so don’t, because, when he plays, I’ll be proven right, and that’s good enough for me.
Oh, and the right Picard…good advice, one should always be accurate (and I am), my advice to you would be to make sure the information you base your opinion on is up to date and accurate. You have failed to do this in this instance. But like I said, time will tell.
Thanks for reading, and responding, the discussion is much appreciated.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 8, 2008
PIM’s? You use that to judge toughness? Wow.
Picard is a much bigger hitter then Redden or Mesz, and a much stronger physical player. He’ll drop the gloves too.
As for penalties, the vast majority are obstruction, big whoop.
By FarthestSenFromHome on Sep 8, 2008
The Sens led the league in scoring last year. We don’t need to increase offense from the back end - we need to stop other teams from putting the puck in our net.
Neither Redden nor Mesz play a style of hockey that would let a coach focus on the defensive system. Pairing Smith with Picard is an ideal combo, as Smith can teach what Picard needs to learn. Given the very clear improvement in Picard’s physical game between Philly and TB, I expect him to step up to the plate in a way that neither Mesz nor Redden could/would.
By Steve on Sep 9, 2008
Ummm Gerald… you’re kidding right? Alexandre Picard will “drop the gloves too”?
The guy has registered 1 NHL fight. He had 2 in the AHL, and he had 2 in Junior. That’s all since 2002. That means in the past 6 years he’s dropped the mitts 5 times. Wade Redden by comparison has fought 9 times in the same time span. Meszaros has fought 4 times since 2004. So according to my “math” Redden and Meszaros have both fought more REGULARLY than Picard.
Oh and as for “Penalties” being obstruction… they do call things like roughing, boarding, charging, cross checking, and the like pretty regularly also. Those aren’t obstruction calls. It would be more likely for a “physical” player to attract such calls than a “non-physical” player, which is pretty much what Picard seems to be. He had 35 hits in 24 games. That works out to a grand total of 1.5 a game. He hits at about the same rate as Paul Ranger, and slightly more often than Dan Boyle. He hits WAY more often than Filip Kuba though… so I’ll give you that.
Either way, he isn’t alarmingly tough on D.
By FarthestSenFromHome on Sep 9, 2008
I’m going to have to agree with Gerald. Anyone who thinks that PIM = tough, physical play needs to brush up on first-year stats class (coincidence does not equal causality).
For example, Spezza racked up 66 PIMs last year, ahead of Redden (60) and Mesz (50). Two of our best physical players had fewer PIMs than Spezza as well - Schubert (64) and Alfie (34).
The fact is, penalties are much more often a sign of laziness or lack of speed these days than “toughness” or “grit”.
By Steve on Sep 9, 2008
Coincidence does not equal causality… no but there IS a freaking correlation, and since the correlation is positive in a pretty obvious way, one could surmise that the two are definitely linked a bit more tightly than just a “coincidence”.
Oh and one other point I’d make about PIM’s. It’s hard to rack up a lot of penalty minutes if you’re just “lazy.” This would mainly be a result of the fact that coaches don’t tend to play the guys who are lazy, and take stupid penalties with no other redeeming features very often.
As a result of that, you either have to be VERY skilled but a lazy back checker to rack em up, or you have to do something alarmingly bad in the short amounts of ice time you spend on the ice. Misconducts and Fights generally rack the PIM up pretty quickly and they are often related to “tough”, “physical” play.
If you made a list of tough and aggresive players who don’t get penalized much it wouldn’t be very long. Scott Stevens reined himself in later on in his career with NJ, but early on in his career he had 13 consecutive 100 PIM seasons, and 14 out of 15 years he broke that plateau. Heck he had 4 seasons with over 200 PIMs.
Niklas Kronwall is physical and he has registered 54 and 44 PIMs respectively in seasons of 68 and 65 games. That would work out to 65 PIMs and 56 PIMs respectively over an 82 game schedule.
Picard’s PIMs would work out to roughly 44 PIMs if he had played 82 games last year. That’s pretty damn low for a “physical” D man.
Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips are the most obviously physical D men on the Senators and they had 55 and 56 PIM’s last year. Phillips’ previous two years were 80 and 90 minutes apiece though, and Volchenkov hit 67 PIMs two years ago.
Mike Fisher and Chris Neil led the Sens in hits last season, and Fisher had 82 PIMs and Neil had 199 PIMs.
I’m noticing some level of correlation between physical play and PIMs.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 9, 2008
Holy shit-storm!
Look, g-man, again, drop the attitude and back away slowly.
My point on the penalties is this, even non aggressive players can end up with a lot of stupid interference/obstruction penalties, look at Redden and Mesz as perfect examples. I had just been reviewing a site earlier that day which listed all players specific penalties, and was shocked at the number of obstruction calls against Redden and Mesz…alas, now I can’t find that site again, anyone know the one I was reading?
I do know Picards P.TAKEN/60min. is the same (.6) as Shannahan, Sean O’donnell, D. Cleary, M. Lucic, Alfredsson, Iginla, D. Brown and higher then Jeff Finger , or OV (.5), S. Doan (.4)
A few other references of note, to display diffusion of PIM data in relation to “agressive” play:
D. Tucker (.7), C. Armstrong (.9), M. Fisher (1.1), M. Afinogenov (1.1), S. Koivu (1.7), Z. Chara (1.2), D. Heatley (1.4), D. Penner (.7), M. Komisarek (1.0), H. Sedin (1.2), M. Lapierre (.9), B. Orpik (.7), Ian White (.8), A. Kotalik (1.5), J. Smith (.9), W. Redden (.9), N. Kronvall (1.1), A. Lilja (1.7), C. Colaiacovo (.5), N. Lidstrom (.8), M. Malek (1.9), B. Lee (1.4), C. Pronger (1.4).
Now do you see why I find comparing PIM’s to “aggressiveness” a dubious theory?
[on an aside, Crosby's penalties drawn number is absolutely scandalous (3.4), no other player even comes close to as high, he is quite literally in a "class" of his own.]
Being agressive does not necessarily mean cross checking, boarding, charging, slashing, spearing, and elbowing, but it can. To my way of thinking, agressive, in a positive light, is a defenseman who will finish his checks, be willing to battle in front of the net, and defend himself. That’s it. How that necessarily correlates to a high PIM stat is unclear, to me.
As well, I never said Picard was a fighter, I said he was willing to drop them, which he is. I know this, as I’ve watched him fight in both the A and the NHL. I did not call him a brawler, or compare him to Chara, so please do not make such broad assumptions about my statements.
As for my calling him “extremely aggressive”, here’s what I originally said in my blog post, please note the difference, “While in Tampa Picard fast became a fan favourite for his determined physical play”. Again, some context would be nice, unless your intent is simply to flame me. Later, in a response to a post which entirely dismissed his physical attributes, I did say “extremely agressive”, and that was over the top, but put into context with my original statement, I stand by my claim to his being a determined physical player.
I’m not saying he’s the second coming of Chara or Pronger, that would be fair to attack, so please, a little respect here before just making wild accusations as to my meanings.
All I’m saying is that he is an agressive player, unlike Mesz or Redden, and that is what his team needs more of. The fact he seems to take relatively few penalties is great, considering how physical he plays. In a discussion I had with someone from the Sens organization, it was clear that Picard was the target of the trade, and that the organization is very high on him as a future blue chip player. Relax everyone.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 9, 2008
G-man, you wrote? “Come on, give your head a shake. If you can’t stand to have someone correct you or to make a point against yours then just shut down the comments portion of the site.”
That’s inflammatory, not merely having a respectful discussion, at least not the sort I enjoy.
I hope people disagree with me, I sure as hell don’t know everything, but I do try to defend my positions with stats and facts of merit, and admit to my errors, when I make them.
I enjoy the discussion, I just don’t appreciate the taunting nature of some of your posts.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 9, 2008
G-man, just giving you my view on your posts, feel free to disagree, or comment as you like. I fail to see where I’ve “blown up”. If you’re comfortable with making inflammatory statements, good for you, I’m not.
I’m not mad if people disagree, in fact, I encourage it, when soundly supported. I do not feel the PIM argument ruling out Picard as a physical player is valid, and my view was supported by showing other players which are viewed as being “physical” and having equal PIM’s as Picard.
If you still feel your point is sound, so be it, that is absolutely your right. I feel entirely supported in my view that PIM’s may indicate a sign of being an agressive player, but is in no way a clear indicator of such, and that appeared, to me, to be the thrust of your one dimentional opinion.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 9, 2008
No, it was one dimentional. How was it multi dimentional? If I’m wrong, I’ll happily say so, but if not, why should I say otherwise? It’s not my argument.
By Oman on Sep 10, 2008
Does this recent G-Man post sound inflammatory? Note: it was a response to a particularly articulate, insightful post.
“Give me a break. Are you wearing rose coloured glasses? Restocking the farm means bringing in young kids with futures ahead of them, not old timers who are done in the NHL. Are you kidding me? Is this blog for real? Murray’s traded away any depth the organization has. He’s done nothing to re-tool the younger side of the organization. He’s a joke. The fact that he gets to ride on Brian Burkes coat tails really pisses me off. Do you honestly think that Bingo is going to be happy with a couple of washed up players? That they will be able to draw in more fans because they have Bell and Isbister. Give me seasons ticket!!! Cripes.”
To me this sort of post is either a sad attempt by a lonely person to get attention, or a deliberate attempt of a biased hockey fan to undermine this particular blog. It could be both.
Gerald, if you have any moderator authority here, you may want to consider filtering out baseless attacks like this that lack substance, as well as these endless reiterations of the same points. I get it. Aggressiveness is sometimes linked to penalties, though this is not a perfect stat, because soft and slow players often obstruct. Enough said.
These endless arguments with half wits is seriously taking time away from new posts with interesting new facts and analysis.
By Gerald Norton on Sep 10, 2008
Oman, due in part to your request, and as a result of non compliance on the part of the poster in question, I have removed posting privileges from “Marc”, “G-man”, and “outsidethecrease”. Let’s hope this will return the decorum of this blog to its previous state.
I encourage all readers to comment on my blogs, and be prepared to defend their arguments, as I will be mine, as this is the purpose of hockeyanalysis.com, to provide more then simple opinion, but rather constructive, and well researched debate.
I also request that posters refrain from engaging in taunting or inflammatory language, which all too often degenerates into an immature series of “flame wars”. Lastly, I ask that posters refrain from posting under multiple names in an attempt at advancing their arguments, or escalating potentially caustic scenarios.
It is unfortunate that a poster had to be blocked, but after repeated requests that he refrain from inflammatory commentary, it became obvious that he had no intention to post in a constructive manner.
My apologies for this situation having occurred, and please note that I will attempt to take action sooner, should it be warranted. I’m not a “webmaster”, so please bear with my learning curve in all of this.
G