OK, enough of the slagging, it’s not really my style.

So what’s the trend here?  Oddly, over 10 games, it’s .500.  And when you factor in the last 2 losses, which could have been wins, maybe things are improving.  MAYBE.

The performance at MSG was solid, not perfect, but surely an improvement.  The only reason the Rangers had a chance to earn any points was due to the play of Lundqvist.  He stole that game, plain and simple.  Normally you could live with this, but after spurning their past opportunities, any loss, no matter how legitimate, puts this team at risk of missing the post season.  This team has already used up a full season worth of bad performance losses.  From this point forward, this team has to win, a lot.  They have to win games no matter how hot the other goalie plays.  Like it or not, for this team, the post season type play starts now.  But to me, there are 2 players that stand in the way of this team moving forward.

Vermette - I’m VERY disappointed in Vermy.  I truly thought he would convert his new contract into solid top six play.  Wow, was I wrong.  He is a 2 way, 3rd line forward, full stop.  I no longer expect anything more then that, and at 2.76M, there are a number of players on this team that can do as well, or near as well, for less, and be happy to play the role.  Bass, Foligno, Winchester, Kelly, MacAmmond, Ruutu, Neil, Schubert and Donnovan.  That’s 9 players, for 6 spots.  Why is Vermette on this team still?  He’s not happy, because he believes he’s top 6.  Trade him.  Can Zubov be worse then Vermette offensively?  Vermette, 4 pts in 18 games, -6, ATOI 18:52.  That’s terrible.  That’s inexcusable.  That’s enough.  And to think, he’s upset because he’s not a top sixer….bye bye.  Zubov earns .850M.  Zubov would accept any role on this team.  Zubov REALLY wants to be here.  

Schubert - He and Vermette are like two peas in a pod in some regards.  Thye both think they’re more then they are, and are complaining that others don’t agree.  Schubie has struggled as a #6 Dman, so what, the team should take his word that he deserves to move up depth chart in that role?  Enough. Like Vermette, there are players who would be happy to play his #6 role, Bell, Richardson, Lee.  Trade him.

For who?  Please oh, please, JBo.  I think this is by far the best all around Dman available.  The package?  Vermette, Schubert, & 2009 1st rnd pick.

3.65M out, 4.875M in. 

The risk?  A clear lack of present scoring depth is not only remaining static, but it could actually be worse, in that there is no more injury depth after Zubov because of Shannons injury status.

During the off season Murray continuously spoke about “character” and “commitment”.  He put these words into action with the removal of Emery, Redden, Mesz, and Grats from the roster.  He brought in guys he claimed oozed the characteristics he was looking for in Ruutu, Smith and Auld.  But now we see even greater signs of this issue rearing it’s ugly head into this seasons play.  Before the season began, Hartsburg held steadfastly to the line that “last year was last year, I wasn’t here for that, and were moving forward”.  But that message changed for the first time after the loss to the lowly Islanders.  In a post game interview Hartsburg, for the first time, alluded to the play of last season continuing into this season.  That is a big change in position.  That is a shot over the bow of the players returning from last season.  That’s a clear threat that says if we haven’t purged the dressing room enough, we’ll keep cutting until the problem is gone.

And then it went further.  Murray himself held a surprise meeting with the team, and coaching staff, and basically repeated this very threat.  Make no mistake, the finger is on the trigger, and if this team doesn’t make a 180 degree turn, Murray will pull it.  Most likely candidates?  Vermette, Spezza, and Neil.

Lastly, in comments just made, Harstburg provided further evidence that a power struggle is at work.  He defended his choice to not reunite the big three, and in doing so, made sure to point out that this was not his decision alone, that this was based upon a great deal of research, thought, and consultation.  Basicaly he said this is not my line in the sand, it’s THE line in the sand, and if you cross it, you’re gone, not me.

This could get ugly.

While many teams with less talent outperform the Sens, often by a wide margin, they often do so in an environment of far less pressure, either via the media, the fans, or both.  Ottawa however is expected to win, by all parties, including themselves.  They are certainly not winning, in fact, they are losing, in glorious, and oft stupefying fashion.  They blew a lead in Carolina.  They were out classed by the Habs.  They were simply outworked by the Leafs and the Isles.  Oh where to begin?

I have the luxury of doing this for a living, solving problems.  This has earned me a great deal of perspective on how frequently a fundamentally good situation can appear bad, and beyond salvation.  I firmly believe this to be the case in Ottawa. However, that is not to say it will be salvaged any time soon.  That is above my pay grade, and frankly, I’m stumped as to what is gnawing at this teams confidence, and ability to work as a unit and capitalize on their skill and abilities.  Because lets be clear, this team is losing, on the ice, to inferior teams, on paper.  No doubt some of the issues are a result of roster depth, particular skill sets, but there is no doubt that the Sens have been defeated by teams more acutely lacking in roster depth.  One need look no further then the Islanders, and their no name defence, offence, and goaltending.  Quite simply, the Islanders won for 1 reasons, they asserted their will through hard work.  The Senators chose to react to the play of the Isles, and rarely ever asserted themselves.  This is a lack of confidence.  In themselves?  Their teammates?  Their system? Their management?  All of the above?  This I do not know.  But I do know it can and will change.  The when is the pink elephant in the room.

For those who have completely lost hope, look no further then the 2006/07 season.  After 17 games in the books, the fans were calling for Alfies head, and the team had amassed 13 pts, with a 6-10-1 record.  It took until game 22 for this Stanley Cup Finals bound squad to move beyond .500.  It wasn’t until game 37 that the team broke out of its above and below .500 standing, and began to re-build it’s confidence, and dominate the East.

This is not to say history will repeat itself, but it is a sign that all is not lost, no matter how bad, and beyond salvation it may appear at the moment.

The real problem I witnessed last night was Gerber.  Not his ability to stop the puck, but rather his style of play, and how it impacts upon the team.  Gerbs is a European style blocking goaltender.  He doesn’t absorb pucks, he doesn’t catch pucks, he blocks and bats them.  This is a legitimate style, which has brought great success to some of the leagues best (i.e. Giguere).  Gerbs plays this style competently, not spectacularly, but certainly well enough to consider it legitimate NHL calibre goaltending.  The problem is that the team around him struggles with this style.  Long rebounds all too often end up on opposition sticks, and begin to create the frenetic defensive play displayed last night, and earlier in the season.  Contrast this to Auld, who plays a similar, but more hybridized style.  Auld too relies on positional play vs reactive goaltending, but he is a massive man, and even when on his knees, covers most of the net.  But Auld also seems to have a better feel for, or ability to control the play in the defensive zone.  He more readily stops play when the team in front of him begins to unravel, and his rebounds aren’t nearly as juicy.  It may just be that Gerbers style of play doesn’t mix well with this teams abilities.  Nobody is ever going to accuse this teams defense of being fleet of foot, and chasing down rebounds, over extended periods of time, is sure to lead to twine stretching turn-overs.

This isn’t to say Auld is the answer, because, to be fair, he has yet to prove himself as a true number one.  But it may mean that, even when posting solid individual goaltending performances, like he did last night, Gerber represents an inherent flaw to this team, as a whole.  Think about it.  The wins by Auld, were they due to his spectacular goaltending?   Gerbers losses, were they a result of his poor goaltending?  The answer to both is no.  So the answer lies in the play of the team in front of each of those goaltenders.  The team has played better in front of Auld, for whatever reason.  I don’t believe this team needs to trade for better goaltending, I think they need goaltending that suits their style, and consistently provides this team with a reliable, and complimentary style of play.  Confidence in this league is very often the difference between winning and losing, and it would appear, for whatever reason, this team is not confident playing in front of Gerber.

I still believe Gerber would do well as a number one in this league, and maybe a role in LA, a team that needs a tender who plays his best when not under pressure, would serve everyones needs.  A mercy trade Brian?  No doubt Gerbs is unhappy.  No doubt we’ve all had enough of the year in, year out “who’s #1?” story line.

LaBarbera for Gerbs, straight up?  LA has the cap room, and this move would not stick either team with a long term deal.  While LA gets an experienced #1, or 1A tender, this move would be a huge risk for Ottawa, as the cupboard would be bare if Auld failed.  But at this point is Gerber really anymore then a torn safety net? A feel good fall back position?  Probably not.  

Again, Gerbs is a good goalie, and doesn’t deserve to be pilloried for his play, but maybe it’s time for management to move on, for everyones benefit, knowing Gerbs is just not a good fit on this roster.  Put it to bed once and for all Brian, addition by subtraction.  Too bad, ’cause Gerbs is a great guy, and belongs in the NHL.

1. Steady goaltending - Auld looks like a rod hockey goalie out there.  Big, fixed, and a limited range of movement.   He just stops pucks, and does not do so in such a fashion that makes a team feel like it’s under pressure.  He’s so composed, and that is what a skittish team needs.

2. Team defense - The forwards are back-checking, and providing superior puck pressure in the defensive zone.  Loose pucks are being chased down, where they had to often become turn-overs in the past.

3. Secondary scoring - Hartsburg is giving time for the new lines to gel, and it is beginning to pay dividends.  The top line is producing, and after a slow start, the second line is beginning to click as well.

4. Penalties - They, as a team, are showing tremendous discipline in this regard.  Last season was horrendous, and this sweeping change is staggering, and a key factor in why this team is better able to control the direction of the game.

I believe this team has moved out of the storming phase and into the norming stage.  Now is a critical time in which the team has to become whetted to the system being preached by the coaching staff.  Now is the time that the team can either solidify and perfect this system, or regress back into the frenetic, directionless play of last season.  It is critical that the coaching staff stay on this team, and have their confidence grow in the system, their teammates and their individual roles.

Now let’s see what happens when things are not going well.  Do they stay composed, and confident, or does this new found commitment to playing as a team fall to pieces?

Although the team has looked much improved in it’s last 3 showings, amassing 2 wins and a OT shoot-out loss, they continue to lose ground to other clubs in their division.  The high flying Canadians continue to impress, looking more and more like the President Trophy winning Buffalo Sabres of the 06/07 season, and the under-estimated Leafs continue to rack up the points by repeatedly storming back late in games, taking advantage of opponants playing as though a win is already in the bag.

But, most importantly, this is an 82 game season, and as supporters of the Senators, we know all to well that how this team starts is not necessarily indicative of how it will finish.  It is foolish to value 2 pts. at the beginning of the season less then 2 pts. at the end of the season, but there is no doubt that playing well at the end of the season is more important then playing well at the start.  

It appears this team is now heading in the right direction, and are playing much better as a team, as well as getting reliable goaltending in Auld.  But this improvement has taken place despite the play of one key player, Mike Fisher.   I like Mike Fisher, a lot.  He is a hard working player, who is a great team guy, both on and off the ice.  Nobody wants to win as a team more then Mike Fisher.  Nobody feels a loss more personally then Mike Fisher.  But this isn’t beer league hockey, this is the NHL, and in the NHL all that matters is success.  Mike has done little to contribute to the success this team has had to date.  This has to change if there exists any real hope of lasting improvement.  Last night Hartsburg looked on as Fisher had the game on his stick in overtime, hoping this would not only secure a much needed point, but more importantly, get the 2 tonne monkey off of Fishers back.  Like in all of his previous attempts at scoring, Mike failed.  Now, it’s not his fault the team lost, we all know Mike contributes in many ways other then offense, but the fact remains, once again, he did not contribute to the team winning, and playing well enough to help keep your team from losing, is not the same as playing well enough to help your team win.  

Going into this season we all knew 3 things had to happen for this team to succeed.  Consistent goaltending. Team defense.  Secondary scoring.  Last night proved 2 out of 3 ain’t good.

The Rumour Mill is certaily heating up around the Sens need for a transition Dman.  A lot of talk has centred around M. Ohland, out of Vancouver, but Murray has made comments which lead one to believe he is not the fit he’s hoping for.  Ohland comes with a big price tag, and an expiring contract, add to that the cost would be an offensive minded forward player (likely Vermette, he’s been a target from Van in the past), no doubt Murray will look elsewhere before considering that option as the best available.

Others have pointed to Trevor Daley, and to my view, this would likely represent a good fit for all sides. Dallas is facing a red alert cap issue with the return of Zubov from LTIR, and if not for the good/bad luck of an injury to Lehtinen, Dallas would be at the mercy of the cap, and forced to either pull a Burke in order to ice the best players on the roster, or eat some serious salary in the minors.  So what to do?  My bet?  TBL 1st rnd and Nikulin to DAL for Daley.  Don’t be shocked if Lee is dealt rather then the pick & Nikulin.  Murray won’t want this, but Daley is a player tagged as a future core guy on the Dallas blueline, and losing him for what effectively only amounts to a pick, even a 1st rounder, would be a tough pill to swallow when Zubov retires.  But more to the point, Dallas would not want salary in return, thus allowing Murray to retain his current roster assets.  

So who is this kid Daley?  Basically he’s a smallish rough and tumble defenseman with some decent offensive upside.  He has played some time with Zubov, and in his recent injury absence, Daley has been tasked with stepping up his role as the #1 PP QB, which he’s done with some success (2G, 2A, 12GP).  Let’s be clear, he’s not the second coming of Chara, and apart from NHL experience, may represent a step back from the potential of Lee, but he’s NHL ready right now, and he brings an intriguing combination of character and skill that will at least help fill the need for better transition breaking out of the defensive zone.

Who would go to accommodate Daleys’ 2.3M in salary commitment?  If Gerber continues to flounder, and both Auld and Elliot remain consistent, well, let’s just say Gerbs might want to start planning for the impeding off-season.  The new salary cap NHL is a ruthless business, just ask Emery.

I’d do it for the 1st rounder, but maybe not for Lee.  What would you do?

Without a doubt this team has been looking inconsistent, and often times confused and panicked.  This can only be expected when faced with an abundance of new line-mates, and a new coach and his system.  But one never knows how much of the slow start is the result of so much change vs. fundamental team weakness.  No doubt this has yet TBD, but last night was probably the first game of the season that had every line pulling on the same rope.  

It can’t go unsaid that Auld also stepped up and provided the team with some confidence in goal.  He has been a number one in the past, and although not projected to be so this season, he wasn’t signed without the hope that he might just surprise.  As a 27 yr. old, he is really only just entering into his prime as a goaltender.  Nobody has ever considered Auld a star, and it is only reasonable to presume it would take him some time to reach his full potential in the NHL.  Does this mean he’ll steal the number one role from Gerber?  No.  But it probably is his last chance to do so, and avoid being permanently pegged as a back-up, and I’m sure he knows that all to well.  He’ll get the next start in TBL to keep proving his case.

Spezza continues to show significant improvement in his defensive play, and his down low puck support contributed to not just solid defensive play, but allowed the defenseman to more effectively transition the puck.  On more then one occasion the relentless FLA fore check was foiled by Spezza’s availability down low in beating the F2 rusher to possession of a loose puck.

Mike Fisher and Antoine Vermette have got to begin proving their ice time as second line players, or something will have to be done, whether it’s a trade of them, or a package of other bottom six guys to land 1 or 2 top six players is TBD, but something will be done sooner then later if things don’t change immediately.

Alfredsson has proven to be the first franchise player in modern Senator history.  Without sounding too jaded, but if Alfie was forced to leave, I would have seriously considered my support of this organization.  Alfie will be the first major building block in the lore of the modern Sens, and let’s face it, no more deserving candidate could there be.

In this phase of team development, individuals are struggling with their new roles, and often management becomes frustrated when things don’t progress smoothly from concept to reality.  We can see this manifesting itself by confused play, and incessant line shifting.  The latest being the demotion (not really) of Lee to Bingo in favour of a more rugged, and well suited to a #5/6 pairing role in Richardson.  As well, the big 3 have parted ways, only this time it’s Spezza being tasked with “improving” the second line offense.

So what does this all mean?  Who knows.  Maybe it means this team will never be a “Hartsburg” type team.  Maybe it means they’re on the cusp of becoming something they’ve never been in the past, a truly hard working, well balanced team.  This is the vision, and no doubt the team has the right pieces, now it’s up to everyone to make them fit.

Give it 12 games, then judge the results, until then, it’s a lot of guessing based on little or no information.

On the good side, Gerber has posted some average to above average performances, and the Kuba/Picard acquisitions have been solid thus far, in fact, Lee has likely lost his role on this team to Picard, who has looked better and better with each shift.

There were some real stories to be written. The difference between the two teams ability to control the play.  The difference between the two teams in recovering loose pucks.  The difference in the two teams ability to make something from nothing.  THAT’S why they lost.  THAT’S what will be the difference between success and stagnation this season.  Not Gerber.

Going into the regular season Ottawa faced 3 primary concerns;

1. Goaltending - Is Gerber a consistent #1?  Unfortunately, Gerbs did nothing to shake off the “inconsistent” moniker.  The first goal, on the first shot (again) was a softy for sure, but to his credit, Gerber did rebound nicely, and through a series of penalty kills kept his team alive with some very solid play.  Unfortunately, come overtime (which can be credited to Gerber for having made it into over-time) he let in a terrible shot from 40 feet out.  So very inconsistent.

Auld, the new comer to the team stepped in the following night and posted a stellar performance, giving up only one meaningless goal in the final second of a game already well in hand.  Seeing Auld play makes one consider the old addage “you can’t teach big”.  This guy is huge, and even on his knees he covers more than 1/3 of the net.  A great start.  Maybe too great!

The start of a controversy?  No.  Gerber get’s the start vs. the Wings.  Media and haters not withstanding, one bad game does not negate Gerbers standing as the #1 in Ottawa.  Luckily Auld, unlike Emery, is a great team guy, and will provide positive pressure on Gerber, and not be hanging on his back and wishing him to fail.

Secondary Scoring - We all know the Terrific Trio can score goals, but when they’re having an off night, will anyone fill the void?  With goals by Donnovan and Vermette, some secondary offense was provided.  It must be noted, that both of those goals came a key times, and were not throw ins coming at the tail end of a rout.  Hopefully the return of Fisher will further solidify this trend of offensive support, but without a doubt, the big three proved once again how absolutely dominant they truly are, and that cannot be discounted when talking offence.

Defence - No doubt last seasons failure was most frequently manifested by a clear and profound lack of good team defense.  Could the new D corp. provide the level of defence this team needs to take advantage of their top tier offensive ability?  If two games are worth anything, the answer is a resounding yes.  Smith and Kuba were terors downlow, Volchy was a machine, Phillips looked like a man on a mission, and not a lonely wanderer in the desert as he had been with Redden and Mesz on the team.  Lee and Picard frequently found themselves facing Malkin and or Crosby, and although as a duo they bent, more importantly, they did not break.  In fact, Picard looked very solid at both ends of the ice.  The physical prowess of this defensive corp is undeniable, and gone (hopefully) are the days of watching our defenseman being pushed around in front of the net, or forechecked to the ice in the corners.  This has got to be one of, if not the biggest defensive corp in the NHL.  It must also be noted that, as a group, they accounted for 4 pts.

Some potential worries might be developing around ice time distribution.  Alfie is still being asked to log over 22 minutes a game.  Can he keep up this pace, or was it the “Sweden” effect?  Also, Smith logged ice times over those of any other defenseman then Kuba.  Can his ageing frame handle the abuse he throws it’s way in an 82 game season?

All in all it was a very succesful series, and after the second game Sens fans were left thinking they may just have that nice balance of skill and grit we’ve all desired for so very long.  Bt, it was only two games, and a team with so many new faces will take longer then a brief off season to put it all together.  But I for one, am optimistic this could be a surprise season.

Saturdays home opener vs. the Wings will undoubtedly test this team to the breaking point, and for a team trying to put it together, it’s a positive to have the flaws, and strengths exposed early on.  The Wings will do that for sure.

BTW….Heatley blocking shots on the PK?  If nothing else, THAT was worth the price of admission!